All resolved pollsResolved · 11 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
New York JetsWon · Crowd had 50%17
Cleveland BrownsCrowd had 50%12
The verdict

The crowd backed New York J. New York Jets won 17–12.

New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 37 points above the market's price on New York J, and it went the other way.

75%Crowd on New York J
38%Market price
+37Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
New York win by 2 or…Market beat the crowd
there be more than 40.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
New York Jets ✓50%
Cleveland Browns50%
OutcomeNew York Jets
Voters4
ReadConsensus
2Will New York win by 2 or more?
No75%
Yes ✓25%
OutcomeYes
Voters4
ReadMarket
3Will there be more than 40.5 points?
Over 40.575%
Under 40.5 ✓25%
OutcomeUnder 40.5
Voters4
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
New York J ✓75%
Cleveland25%
Tie0%
OutcomeNew York J
Voters4
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: New York JetsConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 50%-5pp
Result: New York Jets · 0.50
: Deep
Will New York win by 2 or more: NoMarket
Mkt 49%Crowd 75%+26pp
Result: Yes · 1.13
: Deep
Will there be more than 40.5 points: Over 40.5Market
Mkt 48%Crowd 75%+27pp
Result: Under 40.5 · 1.13
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: New York JCrowd
Mkt 38%Crowd 75%+37pp
Result: New York J · 0.13
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.50
Will New York win by 2 or more1.13
Will there be more than 40.5 points1.13
Who leads at half-time0.13
Average0.72
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

A Cleveland-led, high-scoring game where the Browns win without a big margin. Cleveland controlling the first half and the points flowing freely throughout.

Who wins?Cleveland Browns
Will New York win by 2 or more?No
Will there be more than 40.5 points?Over 40.5
Who leads at half-time?Cleveland
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

Jets lead at the break but Cleveland flips the game in a high-scoring contest, winning without pulling clear by two scores.

Who wins?Cleveland Browns
Will New York win by 2 or more?No
Will there be more than 40.5 points?Over 40.5
Who leads at half-time?New York J
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

Jets in front at half-time and still standing at the final whistle in a free-scoring game, though never quite pulling away to a comfortable two-score cushion.

Who wins?New York Jets
Will New York win by 2 or more?No
Will there be more than 40.5 points?Over 40.5
Who leads at half-time?New York J
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will New York win by 2 or more?Will there be more than 40.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
125%1 voter
Cleveland BrownsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Over 40.5Got it wrong
ClevelandGot it wrong
3.6×
225%1 voter
Cleveland BrownsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Over 40.5Got it wrong
New York JCalled it!
1.2×
325%1 voter
New York JetsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Over 40.5Got it wrong
New York JCalled it!
1.2×
425%1 voter
New York JetsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Under 40.5Called it!
New York JCalled it!
10.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.48How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call3.6×The most-backed combination drew 3.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-14. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 41 · 25%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 41 · 25%
1 / 41 · 25%
0 / 41 · 25%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 1.75 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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