All resolved pollsResolved · 18 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCrowd had 25%19
Pittsburgh SteelersWon · Crowd had 75%26
The verdict

The crowd backed Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh Steelers won 19–26.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Pittsburgh Steelers 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 21 points above the market's price on Pittsburgh, and it went the other way.

75%Crowd on Pittsburgh
54%Market price
+21Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 2 surprises
winsCrowd & market agreed
Pittsburgh win by 3 or…Crowd & market agreed
there be more than 40.5…Surprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Pittsburgh Steelers ✓75%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers25%
OutcomePittsburgh Steelers
Voters4
ReadConsensus
2Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more?
Yes ✓50%
No50%
OutcomeYes
Voters4
ReadConsensus
3Will there be more than 40.5 points?
Under 40.575%
Over 40.5 ✓25%
OutcomeOver 40.5
Voters4
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Pittsburgh75%
Tampa Bay ✓25%
Tie0%
OutcomeTampa Bay
Voters4
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Pittsburgh SteelersConsensus
Mkt 57%Crowd 75%+18pp
Result: Pittsburgh Steelers · 0.13
: Deep
Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more: YesConsensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 50%-1pp
Result: Yes · 0.50
: Deep
Will there be more than 40.5 points: Under 40.5Upset
Mkt 55%Crowd 75%+20pp
Result: Over 40.5 · 1.13
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: PittsburghUpset
Mkt 54%Crowd 75%+21pp
Result: Tampa Bay · 1.13
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.13
Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more0.50
Will there be more than 40.5 points1.13
Who leads at half-time1.13
Average0.72
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

A Steelers win, but a tight one, kept under a field goal margin, in a low-scoring grind with Pittsburgh controlling the first half.

Who wins?Pittsburgh Steelers
Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 40.5 points?Under 40.5
Who leads at half-time?Pittsburgh
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

Pittsburgh dominant and comfortable, winning by a clear margin in an open, high-scoring game with the Steelers ahead at the break.

Who wins?Pittsburgh Steelers
Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 40.5 points?Over 40.5
Who leads at half-time?Pittsburgh
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

A disciplined Steelers victory, winning by three or more in a low-scoring defensive contest with Pittsburgh setting the tone from the first half.

Who wins?Pittsburgh Steelers
Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 40.5 points?Under 40.5
Who leads at half-time?Pittsburgh
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more?Will there be more than 40.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
125%1 voter
Pittsburgh SteelersCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Under 40.5Got it wrong
PittsburghGot it wrong
1.2×
225%1 voter
Pittsburgh SteelersCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Over 40.5Called it!
PittsburghGot it wrong
3.6×
325%1 voter
Pittsburgh SteelersCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Under 40.5Got it wrong
PittsburghGot it wrong
1.2×
425%1 voter
Tampa Bay BuccaneersGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Under 40.5Got it wrong
Tampa BayCalled it!
10.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.48How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 41 · 25%
2 / 41 · 25%
1 / 42 · 50%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 1.75 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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