VoxPop top scenarios
45% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Sweden5
Tunisia1
Crowd called 4 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
59%Crowd
36%Market
+23Divergence
+23 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Sweden on who leads at half-time.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap36%59% Sweden+23
2Who wins?50%72% Sweden+22
3Will both teams score?47%65% Yes+18
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?42%55% Yes+13
Crowd & market agreedSweden 5–1 Tunisia — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario22%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeSweden
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeSweden
Voters1.3k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.12
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.40
Will both teams score0.24
Who leads at half-time0.25
Average0.26
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
122%296 voters
SwedenCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
SwedenCalled it!
1.5×
212%162 voters
SwedenCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
SwedenCalled it!
1.0×
310%136 voters
SwedenCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
SwedenCalled it!
1.5×
48%106 voters
SwedenCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
SwedenCalled it!
1.0×
54%59 voters
SwedenCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
TunisiaGot it wrong
1.0×
64%57 voters
SwedenCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
0.7×
74%53 voters
SwedenCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
1.5×
84%50 voters
TunisiaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
TunisiaGot it wrong
3.9×
93%40 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
6.4×
103%34 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
2.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.24How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 2.51 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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