All resolved pollsResolved · 19 OCT 2026Upset
GetafeCrowd had 40%1
Rayo Vallecano1
The verdict

Getafe 1–1 Rayo Vallecano

Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano 555 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 16 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

61%Crowd on Yes
45%Market price
+16Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario16%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters555World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Getafe40%
Vallecano39%
Tie ✓21%
OutcomeTie
Voters555
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓55%
Over 2.5 goals45%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters555
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓61%
No39%
OutcomeYes
Voters555
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: GetafeUpset
Mkt 32%Crowd 40%+8pp
Result: Tie · 0.94
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 64%Crowd 55%-9pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.40
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 45%Crowd 61%+16pp
Result: Yes · 0.30
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.94
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.40
Will both teams score0.30
Average0.55
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 16% of voters

A Vallecano win in an open, end-to-end affair, with both sides finding the net in a match that spills past two and a half goals.

Match resultVallecano
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

Getafe taking the points in a lively, mutually punishing contest where both teams score and the goal tally runs high.

Match resultGetafe
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

A tight, defensive Getafe win, with one side kept scoreless and the match settled by the slimmest of margins.

Match resultGetafe
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
45% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 555 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
116%89 voters
VallecanoGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.5×
216%89 voters
GetafeGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.5×
313%74 voters
GetafeGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
410%58 voters
VallecanoGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
59%52 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
68%45 voters
VallecanoGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.6×
77%40 voters
GetafeGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.5×
86%35 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
95%25 voters
VallecanoGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
105%25 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (555 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.21How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 352 · 9%
2 / 3145 · 26%
1 / 3315 · 57%
0 / 343 · 8%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=555). Average 1.37 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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