All resolved pollsResolved · 13 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Real SociedadCrowd had 26%0
Atlético Madrid3
The verdict

The crowd backed Atletico. Atlético Madrid won 0–3.

Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid 634 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 19 points above the market's price on Atletico, and it went the other way.

59%Crowd on Atletico
40%Market price
+19Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario27%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters634World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Atletico ✓59%
Real Sociedad26%
Tie15%
OutcomeAtletico
Voters634
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓52%
Under 2.5 goals48%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters634
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes69%
No ✓31%
OutcomeNo
Voters634
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: AtleticoConsensus
Mkt 40%Crowd 59%+19pp
Result: Atletico · 0.26
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 57%Crowd 52%-5pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.46
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 61%Crowd 69%+8pp
Result: No · 0.95
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.26
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.46
Will both teams score0.95
Average0.56
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 27% of voters

A free-scoring Atletico road win, both sides finding the net in an open, end-to-end contest. The crowd's most populated vision, pulling voters together well above chance.

Match resultAtletico
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

Atletico grinding out a tight, disciplined victory, keeping Real Sociedad off the scoresheet in a low-block, controlled away performance.

Match resultAtletico
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

A narrow Atletico win in a cagey affair, both sides trading a goal each but the game staying locked under the total threshold.

Match resultAtletico
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
53% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 634 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
127%173 voters
AtleticoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
213%84 voters
AtleticoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.5×
313%82 voters
AtleticoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
411%67 voters
Real SociedadGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
57%43 voters
Real SociedadGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
66%41 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
76%36 voters
Real SociedadGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.5×
86%36 voters
AtleticoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.6×
95%30 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
103%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (634 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 336 · 6%
2 / 3278 · 44%
1 / 3236 · 37%
0 / 384 · 13%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=634). Average 1.42 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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