All resolved pollsResolved · 31 OCT 2026Upset
Aston VillaCrowd's pick · 67%
FulhamCrowd had 21%
Resolved
The verdict

Aston Villa vs Fulham

Aston Villa vs Fulham 523 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 19 points above the market's price on Aston Villa, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on Aston Villa
48%Market price
+19Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario35%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters523World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Aston Villa67%
Fulham21%
Tie ✓11%
OutcomeTie
Voters523
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals54%
Under 2.5 goals ✓46%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters523
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓70%
No30%
OutcomeYes
Voters523
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Aston VillaUpset
Mkt 48%Crowd 67%+19pp
Result: Tie · 1.29
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 57%Crowd 54%-3pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.58
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 70%+10pp
Result: Yes · 0.18
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.29
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.58
Will both teams score0.18
Average0.68
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 35% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Villa winning an open, end-to-end game with goals at both ends, a high-tempo home victory the majority converged on.

Match resultAston Villa
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

A tighter Villa picture: the home side grinding out a clean or one-sided win, goals scarce and Fulham shut out, efficiency over entertainment.

Match resultAston Villa
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A narrow Villa win where both teams find the net but the game stays low-scoring, a controlled home victory with just enough for Fulham to threaten.

Match resultAston Villa
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
63% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 523 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
135%184 voters
Aston VillaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
216%82 voters
Aston VillaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
312%63 voters
Aston VillaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.6×
48%42 voters
FulhamGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
57%35 voters
FulhamGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
65%27 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.5×
75%24 voters
Aston VillaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.4×
84%21 voters
FulhamGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
93%14 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
102%13 voters
FulhamGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (523 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 327 · 5%
2 / 3123 · 24%
1 / 3336 · 64%
0 / 337 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=523). Average 1.27 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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