VoxPop top scenarios
47% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.2k voters
The matchResolvedUpset
Canada1
Bosnia-Herzegovina1
Crowd called 2 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
60%Crowd
38%Market
+22Divergence
+22 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Canada on who leads at half-time.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap38%60% Canada+22
2Will both teams score?47%67% Yes+20
3Who wins?54%70% Canada+16
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?57%53% No-4
UpsetCanada 1–1 Bosnia-Herzegovina — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
winsSurprise
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario21%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeTie
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.2k
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeBosnia and Herzegovina
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.38
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.44
Will both teams score0.22
Who leads at half-time1.10
Average0.79
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
121%260 voters
CanadaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
CanadaGot it wrong
1.6×
214%172 voters
CanadaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
CanadaGot it wrong
0.9×
312%153 voters
CanadaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
CanadaGot it wrong
1.7×
45%67 voters
Bosnia and HerzegovinaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Bosnia and HerzegovinaCalled it!
4.6×
55%64 voters
CanadaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
CanadaGot it wrong
0.8×
64%55 voters
CanadaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
TieGot it wrong
0.8×
74%50 voters
CanadaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
TieGot it wrong
1.4×
83%42 voters
CanadaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
TieGot it wrong
0.7×
93%36 voters
Bosnia and HerzegovinaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Bosnia and HerzegovinaCalled it!
2.2×
103%31 voters
Bosnia and HerzegovinaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Bosnia and HerzegovinaCalled it!
3.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.2k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.26How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.2k). Average 1.45 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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