All resolved pollsAwaiting result
Chelsea
Manchester United
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
80%Crowd
62%Market
+18Divergence

+18 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits well above market on both teams scoring, the widest gap on the board.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap62%80% Yes+18
2Match result53%50% Chelsea-3
3Will there be more than 2.5 goals?62%64% Over 2.5 goals+2
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters546World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Chelsea50%
Manchester United37%
Tie12%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters546
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals64%
Under 2.5 goals36%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters546
3Will both teams score?
Yes80%
No20%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters546
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Chelsea
Mkt 53%Crowd 50%-3pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goals
Mkt 62%Crowd 64%+2pp
: Thin
Will both teams score: Yes
Mkt 62%Crowd 80%+18pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Chelsea take the points in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultChelsea
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 20% of voters

A sizeable minority pictures United leaving with the win in a lively, high-scoring affair where neither defence holds firm.

Match resultManchester United
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

A smaller cluster sees United grinding out a tight result, with both teams getting on the scoresheet but the game staying low on goals.

Match resultManchester United
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
63% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 546 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
133%181 voters
ChelseaPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.3×
220%109 voters
Manchester UnitedPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.1×
310%56 voters
Manchester UnitedPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.0×
48%41 voters
ChelseaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.5×
57%37 voters
ChelseaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.9×
65%27 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.4×
75%25 voters
Manchester UnitedPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.7×
84%24 voters
TiePending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.7×
93%15 voters
ChelseaPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.4×
103%14 voters
Manchester UnitedPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (546 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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