All resolved pollsResolved · 20 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Marseille1
Paris Saint-Germain FCWon · Crowd had 73%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Paris Saint-Germain FC won 1–2.

Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain 571 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 9 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

70%Crowd on Yes
61%Market price
+9Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario40%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters571World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Paris Saint-Germain FC ✓73%
Olympique de Marseille16%
Tie10%
OutcomeParis Saint-Germain FC
Voters571
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓65%
Under 2.5 goals35%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters571
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓70%
No30%
OutcomeYes
Voters571
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Paris Saint-Germain FCConsensus
Mkt 68%Crowd 73%+5pp
Result: Paris Saint-Germain FC · 0.11
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 70%Crowd 65%-5pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.24
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 70%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.18
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.11
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.24
Will both teams score0.18
Average0.18
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 40% of voters · came true

PSG dominate but Marseille find a way through; a free-flowing, open contest with goals at both ends and plenty of them.

Match resultParis Saint-Germain FC
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

PSG grind out a tight win, Marseille grab a consolation; a cagey derby decided by fine margins with few clear chances.

Match resultParis Saint-Germain FC
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

PSG run riot and keep Marseille scoreless; a one-sided rout with the goals all flowing one way.

Match resultParis Saint-Germain FC
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
64% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 571 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
140%227 voters
Paris Saint-Germain FCCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
213%72 voters
Paris Saint-Germain FCCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
312%66 voters
Paris Saint-Germain FCCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
49%54 voters
Paris Saint-Germain FCCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
56%36 voters
Olympique de MarseilleGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
64%25 voters
Olympique de MarseilleGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
73%19 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
83%19 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
93%18 voters
Olympique de MarseilleGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
102%14 voters
Olympique de MarseilleGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (571 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.12How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3227 · 40%
2 / 3193 · 34%
1 / 3119 · 21%
0 / 332 · 6%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=571). Average 2.08 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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