All resolved pollsResolved · 5 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
FranceWon · Crowd had 78%4
BelgiumCrowd had 12%1
The verdict

The crowd called it — France won 4–1.

France vs Belgium 591 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 15 points above the market's price on France, and the crowd had it.

78%Crowd on France
63%Market price
+15Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario45%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters591World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
France ✓78%
Belgium12%
Tie9%
OutcomeFrance
Voters591
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓63%
Under 2.5 goals37%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters591
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓72%
No28%
OutcomeYes
Voters591
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: FranceConsensus
Mkt 63%Crowd 78%+15pp
Result: France · 0.07
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 63%Crowd 63%0pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.27
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 58%Crowd 72%+14pp
Result: Yes · 0.16
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.07
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.27
Will both teams score0.16
Average0.17
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 45% of voters · came true

France in control of an open, end-to-end game, goals flowing freely with Belgium finding the net at least once in a lively contest.

Match resultFrance
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

France grinding out a tight, low-scoring win, keeping Belgium off the scoresheet in a disciplined, contained affair.

Match resultFrance
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

France edging a close, scrappy game with few goals, Belgium nicking one but never threatening to turn the result around.

Match resultFrance
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
70% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 591 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
145%265 voters
FranceCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
214%83 voters
FranceCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
311%66 voters
FranceCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.5×
48%49 voters
FranceCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
55%32 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
64%23 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.2×
74%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.5×
83%20 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
92%14 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
102%10 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (591 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3265 · 45%
2 / 3167 · 28%
1 / 3135 · 23%
0 / 324 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=591). Average 2.14 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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