All resolved pollsResolved · 19 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
MonzaWon · Crowd had 34%4
CagliariCrowd's pick · 47%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Cagliari. Monza won 4–0.

Monza vs Cagliari 557 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 16 points above the market's price on Cagliari, and it went the other way.

47%Crowd on Cagliari
31%Market price
+16Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
Match resultMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters557World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Cagliari47%
Monza ✓34%
Tie19%
OutcomeMonza
Voters557
ReadMarket
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals56%
Over 2.5 goals ✓44%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters557
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes64%
No ✓36%
OutcomeNo
Voters557
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: CagliariMarket
Mkt 31%Crowd 47%+16pp
Result: Monza · 0.69
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 54%Crowd 56%+2pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.63
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 54%Crowd 64%+10pp
Result: No · 0.82
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.69
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.63
Will both teams score0.82
Average0.71
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters

A Cagliari away win in an open, end-to-end contest, both sides finding the net in a match with plenty of goals to share.

Match resultCagliari
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

Monza take the points but the game stays lively, with both teams getting on the scoresheet in a high-tempo, goal-filled affair.

Match resultMonza
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

Cagliari grind out a tight, low-scoring win, keeping Monza off the board in a disciplined, defensively compact match.

Match resultCagliari
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
46% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 557 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
117%92 voters
CagliariGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
215%84 voters
MonzaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.6×
314%78 voters
CagliariGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.5×
412%68 voters
CagliariGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
58%46 voters
MonzaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
68%43 voters
MonzaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.1×
77%41 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
87%37 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.7×
94%25 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
104%23 voters
CagliariGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (557 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 317 · 3%
2 / 3153 · 27%
1 / 3278 · 50%
0 / 3109 · 20%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=557). Average 1.14 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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