All resolved pollsResolved · 21 OCT 2026Upset
Bayern MunichCrowd's pick · 57%2
ArsenalCrowd had 29%2
The verdict

Bayern Munich 2–2 Arsenal

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal 574 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 19 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

81%Crowd on Yes
62%Market price
+19Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario36%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters574World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Bayern Munich57%
Arsenal29%
Tie ✓13%
OutcomeTie
Voters574
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓64%
Under 2.5 goals36%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters574
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓81%
No19%
OutcomeYes
Voters574
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Bayern MunichUpset
Mkt 45%Crowd 57%+12pp
Result: Tie · 1.17
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 64%+3pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.26
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 62%Crowd 81%+19pp
Result: Yes · 0.07
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.17
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.26
Will both teams score0.07
Average0.50
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 36% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Bayern controlling a free-scoring, open game at the Allianz, with both sides finding the net in a high-tempo contest.

Match resultBayern Munich
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

A sizeable minority saw Arsenal pulling off a result in a lively, end-to-end affair, with both teams contributing to a high-goal evening.

Match resultArsenal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A tighter Bayern win, but still one where Arsenal found a way through, the crowd picturing a cagey but two-sided contest with a narrow home victory.

Match resultBayern Munich
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
64% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 574 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
136%205 voters
Bayern MunichGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
216%91 voters
ArsenalGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
312%69 voters
Bayern MunichGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
46%37 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.7×
56%36 voters
ArsenalGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
66%33 voters
Bayern MunichGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
75%27 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
84%23 voters
ArsenalGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.0×
94%22 voters
Bayern MunichGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
103%18 voters
ArsenalGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (574 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 327 · 5%
2 / 3336 · 59%
1 / 3155 · 27%
0 / 356 · 10%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=574). Average 1.58 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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