All resolved pollsResolved · 20 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
BournemouthCrowd had 13%0
LiverpoolWon · Crowd had 80%1
The verdict

The crowd called it — Liverpool won 0–1.

AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool 600 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 34 points above the market's price on Liverpool, and the crowd had it.

80%Crowd on Liverpool
46%Market price
+34Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario40%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters600World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Liverpool ✓80%
Bournemouth13%
Tie7%
OutcomeLiverpool
Voters600
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals62%
Under 2.5 goals ✓38%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters600
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes66%
No ✓34%
OutcomeNo
Voters600
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: LiverpoolConsensus
Mkt 46%Crowd 80%+34pp
Result: Liverpool · 0.06
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 65%Crowd 62%-3pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.77
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 68%Crowd 66%-2pp
Result: No · 0.87
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.06
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.77
Will both teams score0.87
Average0.57
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 40% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Liverpool winning a lively, open game with goals at both ends, a busy and entertaining contest.

Match resultLiverpool
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters · came true

A tighter read: Liverpool grinding out a narrow, controlled win, keeping a clean sheet in a low-scoring, defensive affair.

Match resultLiverpool
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

Liverpool edging a close, scrappy game where both sides find the net but the goals stay scarce overall.

Match resultLiverpool
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
69% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 600 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
140%237 voters
LiverpoolCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
215%90 voters
LiverpoolCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
314%86 voters
LiverpoolCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
411%68 voters
LiverpoolCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.7×
56%34 voters
BournemouthGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
63%16 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
73%16 voters
BournemouthGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.6×
83%16 voters
BournemouthGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.0×
92%13 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
102%12 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
2.2×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (600 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 390 · 15%
2 / 3182 · 30%
1 / 3281 · 47%
0 / 347 · 8%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=600). Average 1.53 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Browse all matches