All resolved pollsResolved · 29 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
SpainWon · Crowd had 82%4
CroatiaCrowd had 11%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Spain won 4–1.

Spain vs Croatia 621 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 26 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

71%Crowd on Yes
45%Market price
+26Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario47%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters621World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Spain ✓82%
Croatia11%
Tie7%
OutcomeSpain
Voters621
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓65%
Under 2.5 goals35%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters621
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓71%
No29%
OutcomeYes
Voters621
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: SpainConsensus
Mkt 77%Crowd 82%+5pp
Result: Spain · 0.05
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 65%+4pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.24
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 45%Crowd 71%+26pp
Result: Yes · 0.17
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.05
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.24
Will both teams score0.17
Average0.15
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 47% of voters · came true

Spain in control but Croatia finding a way through, an open game with goals traded and the scoreboard busy at both ends.

Match resultSpain
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

Spain grinding out a tight, disciplined win, keeping Croatia scoreless in a low-event match that never fully opened up.

Match resultSpain
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Spain winning narrowly with Croatia nicking one back, a compact game decided by a single goal's margin with little else to spare.

Match resultSpain
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
71% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 621 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
147%291 voters
SpainCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
213%78 voters
SpainCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
312%73 voters
SpainCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
410%65 voters
SpainCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
54%26 voters
CroatiaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
3.7×
64%25 voters
CroatiaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
73%18 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.7×
83%17 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
92%14 voters
CroatiaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
101%7 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (621 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3291 · 47%
2 / 3180 · 29%
1 / 3117 · 19%
0 / 333 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=621). Average 2.17 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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