All resolved pollsResolved · 26 JUN 2026Upset
TurkeyWon · Crowd had 23%3
USACrowd's pick · 67%2
The verdict

The crowd backed USA. Turkey won 3–2.

Turkey vs. USA 907 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 21 points above the market's price on USA, and it went the other way.

59%Crowd on USA
38%Market price
+21Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeSurprise
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario28%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters907World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
USA67%
Turkey23%
Draw10%
OutcomeTurkey
Voters907
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes62%
No38%
OutcomeYes
Voters907
ReadConsensus
3Who leads at half-time?
USA59%
Draw20%
Turkey20%
OutcomeTurkey
Voters907
ReadUpset
4Will both teams score?
Yes67%
No33%
OutcomeYes
Voters907
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: USAUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 67%+16pp
Result: Turkey · 1.05
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesConsensus
Mkt 56%Crowd 62%+6pp
Result: Yes · 0.29
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: USAUpset
Mkt 38%Crowd 59%+21pp
Result: Turkey · 1.03
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 58%Crowd 67%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.22
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.05
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.29
Who leads at half-time1.03
Will both teams score0.22
Average0.65
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 28% of voters

A high-tempo, open contest: USA in front at the break, both sides finding the net, and the Americans pulling clear for a winning margin built on goals at both ends.

Who wins this match?USA
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?USA
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters

USA dominant and efficient, leading at half-time and running out winners, with the goals coming in a cluster but Turkey kept off the scoresheet throughout.

Who wins this match?USA
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?USA
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

A tight, controlled affair: USA ahead at the break and composed enough to see it out, the scoreline modest and Turkey unable to register at either end.

Who wins this match?USA
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?USA
Will both teams score?No
47% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 907 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
128%250 voters
USAGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
USAGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.7×
211%98 voters
USAGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
USAGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
38%75 voters
USAGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
USAGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
47%61 voters
TurkeyCalled it!
YesCalled it!
TurkeyCalled it!
YesCalled it!
3.5×
57%60 voters
USAGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
USAGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
64%38 voters
USAGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
73%30 voters
TurkeyCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
TurkeyCalled it!
YesCalled it!
2.8×
83%30 voters
TurkeyCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
TurkeyCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
5.7×
93%27 voters
USAGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
TurkeyCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.5×
103%25 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
11.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (907 voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.33How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 461 · 7%
3 / 4107 · 12%
2 / 4381 · 42%
1 / 4233 · 26%
0 / 4125 · 14%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=907). Average 1.72 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.