The matchResolvedUpset
Turkey3
USA2
Crowd and market both called 2 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
59%Crowd
38%Market
+21Divergence

+21 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran well above market on USA leading at half-time, the widest gap of the poll, a read the result did not support.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap38%59% USA+21
2Who wins this match?51%67% USA+16
3Will both teams score?58%67% Yes+9
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?56%62% Yes+6
How it landed:UpsetTurkey 3–2 United States — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeSurprise
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario28%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters907World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
USA67%
Turkey23%
Draw10%
OutcomeTurkey
Voters907
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes62%
No38%
OutcomeYes
Voters907
ReadConsensus
3Who leads at half-time?
USA59%
Draw20%
Turkey20%
OutcomeTurkey
Voters907
ReadUpset
4Will both teams score?
Yes67%
No33%
OutcomeYes
Voters907
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: USAUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 67%+16pp
Result: Turkey · 1.05
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesConsensus
Mkt 56%Crowd 62%+6pp
Result: Yes · 0.29
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: USAUpset
Mkt 38%Crowd 59%+21pp
Result: Turkey · 1.03
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 58%Crowd 67%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.22
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.05
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.29
Who leads at half-time1.03
Will both teams score0.22
Average0.65
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 28% of voters

A high-tempo, open contest: USA in front at the break, both sides finding the net, and the Americans pulling clear for a winning margin built on goals at both ends.

Who wins this match?USA
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?USA
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters

USA dominant and efficient, leading at half-time and running out winners, with the goals coming in a cluster but Turkey kept off the scoresheet throughout.

Who wins this match?USA
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?USA
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

A tight, controlled affair: USA ahead at the break and composed enough to see it out, the scoreline modest and Turkey unable to register at either end.

Who wins this match?USA
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?USA
Will both teams score?No
47% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 907 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
128%250 voters
USAGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
USAGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.7×
211%98 voters
USAGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
USAGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
38%75 voters
USAGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
USAGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
47%61 voters
TurkeyCalled it!
YesCalled it!
TurkeyCalled it!
YesCalled it!
3.5×
57%60 voters
USAGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
USAGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
64%38 voters
USAGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
73%30 voters
TurkeyCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
TurkeyCalled it!
YesCalled it!
2.8×
83%30 voters
TurkeyCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
TurkeyCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
5.7×
93%27 voters
USAGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
TurkeyCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.5×
103%25 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
11.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (907 voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.33How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 461 · 7%
3 / 4107 · 12%
2 / 4381 · 42%
1 / 4233 · 26%
0 / 4125 · 14%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=907). Average 1.72 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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