The matchResolvedMarket beat the crowd
Portugal0
Spain1
Crowd called 1 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
78%Crowd
54%Market
+24Divergence

+24 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran far above the market on both teams scoring, a gap that met a scoreless outcome.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap54%78% Yes+24
2Who wins this match?34%56% Portugal advances+22
3Who leads at half-time?21%35% Portugal wins 1st Half+14
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?51%50% No-1
How it landed:Market beat the crowdPortugal 0–1 Spain — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchMarket beat the crowd
both teams score in…Surprise
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario13%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.9kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Portugal advances56%
Spain advances44%
OutcomeSpain advances
Voters1.9k
ReadMarket
2Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes78%
No22%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.9k
ReadUpset
3Who leads at half-time?
Portugal wins 1st Half35%
Spain wins 1st Half33%
Tie 1st Half32%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters1.9k
ReadMarket
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes50%
No50%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.9k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Portugal advancesMarket
Mkt 34%Crowd 56%+22pp
Result: Spain advances · 0.63
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesUpset
Mkt 54%Crowd 78%+24pp
Result: No · 1.22
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Portugal wins 1st HalfMarket
Mkt 21%Crowd 35%+14pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 0.69
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoConsensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 50%-1pp
Result: No · 0.50
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.63
Will both teams score in regulation time1.22
Who leads at half-time0.69
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.50
Average0.76
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 13% of voters

A Portugal-driven, open contest: Ronaldo's side seizes the lead before the break and both teams trade goals in a high-scoring, end-to-end regulation.

Who wins this match?Portugal advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Portugal wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

Spain takes control early, leads at the interval, but Portugal hit back, pushing the goal tally past three in a lively, mutually punishing regulation.

Who wins this match?Spain advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Spain wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Portugal edges ahead before half-time and both teams find the net, yet the match stays tight enough that the final goal count stays below three.

Who wins this match?Portugal advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Portugal wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
38% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.9k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
113%255 voters
Portugal advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Portugal wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.7×
213%253 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Spain wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.3×
312%221 voters
Portugal advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Portugal wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.5×
48%155 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Spain wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.4×
56%123 voters
Portugal advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.9×
66%121 voters
Portugal advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
76%112 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
84%79 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.8×
94%76 voters
Portugal advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Portugal wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.8×
104%71 voters
Portugal advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.9k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.26How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-8The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-8; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-13. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 465 · 3%
3 / 4223 · 12%
2 / 4576 · 30%
1 / 4739 · 39%
0 / 4313 · 16%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.9k). Average 1.47 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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