All resolved pollsResolved · 14 SEPT 2026Market beat the crowd
Leeds UnitedWon · Crowd had 23%4
Newcastle United1
The verdict

The crowd backed Newcastle. Leeds United won 4–1.

Leeds United vs Newcastle United 690 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 28 points above the market's price on Newcastle, and it went the other way.

62%Crowd on Newcastle
34%Market price
+28Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
Match resultMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario26%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters690World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Newcastle62%
Leeds United ✓23%
Tie16%
OutcomeLeeds United
Voters690
ReadMarket
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals51%
Over 2.5 goals ✓49%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters690
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓66%
No34%
OutcomeYes
Voters690
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: NewcastleMarket
Mkt 34%Crowd 62%+28pp
Result: Leeds United · 1.00
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 46%Crowd 51%+5pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.52
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 66%+7pp
Result: Yes · 0.23
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.00
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.52
Will both teams score0.23
Average0.58
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 26% of voters

A free-scoring Newcastle victory, goals flying in at both ends. The crowd's most popular vision, with both sides finding the net in an open, attacking contest.

Match resultNewcastle
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

A tight, controlled Newcastle win, kept clean or near enough. A disciplined away performance shutting Leeds out and keeping the scoreline compact.

Match resultNewcastle
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

Newcastle edging a close, low-key affair with both sides scoring once. A narrow, scrappy win rather than a statement performance.

Match resultNewcastle
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
55% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 690 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
126%176 voters
NewcastleGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
216%108 voters
NewcastleGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
314%96 voters
NewcastleGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
410%67 voters
Leeds UnitedCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
57%45 voters
NewcastleGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
66%43 voters
Leeds UnitedCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
75%36 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
85%36 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
95%33 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
105%33 voters
Leeds UnitedCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (690 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 367 · 10%
2 / 3269 · 39%
1 / 3213 · 31%
0 / 3141 · 20%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=690). Average 1.38 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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