All resolved pollsResolved · 12 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
SantosWon · Crowd had 56%2
CruzeiroCrowd had 26%1
The verdict

The crowd called it — Santos won 2–1.

Santos vs Cruzeiro 650 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 19 points above the market's price on Santos, and the crowd had it.

56%Crowd on Santos
37%Market price
+19Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters650World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Santos ✓56%
Cruzeiro26%
Tie17%
OutcomeSantos
Voters650
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals51%
Over 2.5 goals ✓49%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters650
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓64%
No36%
OutcomeYes
Voters650
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: SantosConsensus
Mkt 37%Crowd 56%+19pp
Result: Santos · 0.29
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 51%0pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.52
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 56%Crowd 64%+8pp
Result: Yes · 0.26
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.29
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.52
Will both teams score0.26
Average0.36
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters · came true

An open, end-to-end Santos victory with both sides finding the net and the goals flowing freely across ninety minutes.

Match resultSantos
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A tight, controlled Santos win, goals kept to a minimum and Cruzeiro shut out of the scoresheet entirely.

Match resultSantos
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A narrow Santos victory in a cagey affair, both sides scoring once but the game never opening up beyond a handful of chances.

Match resultSantos
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
51% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 650 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
125%161 voters
SantosCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
214%90 voters
SantosCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
312%79 voters
SantosCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
410%65 voters
CruzeiroGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
58%50 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
67%45 voters
CruzeiroGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
76%37 voters
CruzeiroGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
86%37 voters
SantosCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
95%30 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
104%24 voters
CruzeiroGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (650 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3161 · 25%
2 / 3202 · 31%
1 / 3212 · 33%
0 / 375 · 12%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=650). Average 1.69 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Browse all matches