The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Canada0
Morocco3
Crowd called 1 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
72%Crowd
45%Market
+27Divergence

+27 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well above market on both teams scoring. That gap defined the poll, and the outcome went the other way.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap45%72% Yes+27
2Who wins this match?73%61% Morocco advances-12
3Who leads at half-time?39%46% Morocco wins 1st Half+7
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?59%57% No-2
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedCanada 0–3 Morocco — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Surprise
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
both teams score in…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario15%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.7kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Morocco advances61%
Canada advances39%
OutcomeMorocco advances
Voters1.7k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No57%
Yes43%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.7k
ReadUpset
3Who leads at half-time?
Morocco wins 1st Half46%
Canada wins 1st Half27%
Tie 1st Half26%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters1.7k
ReadMarket
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes72%
No28%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.7k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Morocco advancesConsensus
Mkt 73%Crowd 61%-12pp
Result: Morocco advances · 0.30
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoUpset
Mkt 59%Crowd 57%-2pp
Result: Yes · 0.65
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Morocco wins 1st HalfMarket
Mkt 39%Crowd 46%+7pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 0.83
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesMarket
Mkt 45%Crowd 72%+27pp
Result: No · 1.04
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.30
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.65
Who leads at half-time0.83
Will both teams score in regulation time1.04
Average0.71
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 15% of voters

A high-scoring Moroccan statement: Morocco in front at the break, both sides finding the net, and the Atlas Lions marching through.

Who wins this match?Morocco advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Morocco wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

Morocco controlled and clinical: leading at half-time, both teams scoring once, but the final tally kept tight and under three goals.

Who wins this match?Morocco advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Morocco wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

Canada's upset vision: the Reds ahead at the break, both sides on the scoresheet, yet the game staying low-scoring as Canada edged through.

Who wins this match?Canada advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Canada wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
37% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.7k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
115%253 voters
Morocco advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Morocco wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.7×
213%229 voters
Morocco advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Morocco wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
39%147 voters
Canada advancesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Canada wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.0×
48%138 voters
Canada advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Canada wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.5×
58%129 voters
Morocco advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Morocco wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.7×
67%113 voters
Morocco advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
75%89 voters
Morocco advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
2.1×
84%69 voters
Morocco advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
94%61 voters
Canada advancesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
103%57 voters
Canada advancesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Canada wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
2.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.7k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.26How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-12. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 411 · 1%
3 / 4235 · 14%
2 / 4685 · 40%
1 / 4582 · 34%
0 / 4189 · 11%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.7k). Average 1.59 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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