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Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Match result
50%Crowd
40%Market
+10Divergence

+10 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits well above market on Newcastle, and below market on Over 2.5 goals.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Match resultBiggest gap40%50% Newcastle+10
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?62%52% Over 2.5 goals-10
3Will both teams score?63%67% Yes+4
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario23%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters541World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Newcastle50%
Crystal Palace35%
Tie15%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters541
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals52%
Under 2.5 goals48%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters541
3Will both teams score?
Yes67%
No33%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters541
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Newcastle
Mkt 40%Crowd 50%+10pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goals
Mkt 62%Crowd 52%-10pp
: Thin
Will both teams score: Yes
Mkt 63%Crowd 67%+4pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 23% of voters

An open, end-to-end contest with Newcastle taking the points in a game where both sides find the net and chances flow freely.

Match resultNewcastle
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A high-tempo upset vision: Crystal Palace claim the result in a lively, back-and-forth match where both teams get on the scoresheet.

Match resultCrystal Palace
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

A tight, controlled Newcastle victory in a low-scoring, defensively solid affair where only one side manages to score.

Match resultNewcastle
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
53% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 541 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
123%126 voters
NewcastlePending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.3×
217%91 voters
Crystal PalacePending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.4×
313%70 voters
NewcastlePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.6×
410%56 voters
NewcastlePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.6×
58%43 voters
Crystal PalacePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.4×
67%37 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.4×
76%34 voters
Crystal PalacePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.6×
84%20 voters
NewcastlePending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.4×
94%19 voters
TiePending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.7×
104%19 voters
Crystal PalacePending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (541 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.21How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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