All resolved pollsResolved · 19 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Vasco da GamaWon · Crowd had 61%5
CoritibaCrowd had 20%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Vasco da Gama won 5–0.

Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba 600 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 14 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

62%Crowd on Yes
48%Market price
+14Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters600World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Vasco da Gama ✓61%
Coritiba20%
Tie19%
OutcomeVasco da Gama
Voters600
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals52%
Over 2.5 goals ✓48%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters600
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes62%
No ✓38%
OutcomeNo
Voters600
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Vasco da GamaConsensus
Mkt 63%Crowd 61%-2pp
Result: Vasco da Gama · 0.23
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 49%Crowd 52%+3pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.54
: Thin
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 48%Crowd 62%+14pp
Result: No · 0.77
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.23
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.54
Will both teams score0.77
Average0.51
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

A Vasco win in an open, end-to-end contest, goals flowing at both ends and the total clearing the bar with room to spare.

Match resultVasco da Gama
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

Vasco grind out a controlled, low-scoring victory, keeping Coritiba off the board and the game tight throughout.

Match resultVasco da Gama
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

A narrow Vasco win with both sides finding the net, the match settled by a slender margin in a compact, contained affair.

Match resultVasco da Gama
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
54% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 600 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
125%151 voters
Vasco da GamaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
216%93 voters
Vasco da GamaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.3×
314%81 voters
Vasco da GamaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
48%47 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
57%41 voters
CoritibaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
67%40 voters
Vasco da GamaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.6×
75%31 voters
CoritibaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
85%30 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.3×
95%28 voters
CoritibaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.2×
104%23 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (600 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 340 · 7%
2 / 3279 · 47%
1 / 3203 · 34%
0 / 378 · 13%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=600). Average 1.47 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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