The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
New Zealand1
Belgium5
Crowd called 4 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 2.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
52%Crowd
40%Market
+12Divergence

+12 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd above market on Both Teams Score and goals volume. Both aligned with the result..

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap40%52% Yes+12
2Who wins this match?80%71% Belgium-9
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?46%53% Yes+7
4Who leads at half-time?59%57% Belgium-2
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedNew Zealand 1–5 Belgium — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters888World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Belgium71%
New Zealand20%
Draw8%
OutcomeBelgium
Voters888
ReadConsensus
2Who leads at half-time?
Belgium57%
Draw23%
New Zealand20%
OutcomeBelgium
Voters888
ReadConsensus
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes53%
No47%
OutcomeYes
Voters888
ReadCrowd
4Will both teams score?
Yes52%
No48%
OutcomeYes
Voters888
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: BelgiumConsensus
Mkt 80%Crowd 71%-9pp
Result: Belgium · 0.13
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: BelgiumConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 57%-2pp
Result: Belgium · 0.28
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesCrowd
Mkt 46%Crowd 53%+7pp
Result: Yes · 0.44
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 40%Crowd 52%+12pp
Result: Yes · 0.46
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.13
Who leads at half-time0.28
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.44
Will both teams score0.46
Average0.33
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters · came true

Belgium in control from the off, leading at the break in an open game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely throughout.

Who wins this match?Belgium
Who leads at half-time?Belgium
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

Belgium dominant and ahead at half-time, goals coming in volume but all flowing one way, with New Zealand kept off the scoresheet entirely.

Who wins this match?Belgium
Who leads at half-time?Belgium
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

Belgium lead at the break and see the game out efficiently, a tight low-scoring affair with New Zealand unable to breach the Belgian defence.

Who wins this match?Belgium
Who leads at half-time?Belgium
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
45% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 888 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?
117%147 voters
BelgiumCalled it!
BelgiumCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.5×
215%129 voters
BelgiumCalled it!
BelgiumCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
314%122 voters
BelgiumCalled it!
BelgiumCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
47%64 voters
BelgiumCalled it!
BelgiumCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
57%59 voters
New ZealandGot it wrong
New ZealandGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
6.0×
66%54 voters
BelgiumCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
74%32 voters
BelgiumCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
83%25 voters
New ZealandGot it wrong
New ZealandGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
3.1×
93%23 voters
DrawGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
6.2×
102%20 voters
New ZealandGot it wrong
New ZealandGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (888 voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.30How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4147 · 17%
3 / 4260 · 29%
2 / 4279 · 31%
1 / 4140 · 16%
0 / 462 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=888). Average 2.33 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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