All resolved pollsResolved · 25 SEPT 2026Upset
AustraliaCrowd had 9%1
BrazilCrowd's pick · 84%1
The verdict

Australia 1–1 Brazil

Australia vs Brazil 546 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 13 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

65%Crowd on Yes
52%Market price
+13Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario41%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters546World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Brazil84%
Australia9%
Tie ✓7%
OutcomeTie
Voters546
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals70%
Under 2.5 goals ✓30%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters546
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓65%
No35%
OutcomeYes
Voters546
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: BrazilUpset
Mkt 73%Crowd 84%+11pp
Result: Tie · 1.58
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 61%Crowd 70%+9pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.98
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 65%+13pp
Result: Yes · 0.24
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.58
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.98
Will both teams score0.24
Average0.93
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 41% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Brazil in control of an open, end-to-end contest with both sides finding the net in a goal-rich match.

Match resultBrazil
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 20% of voters

A secondary cluster saw Brazil winning a free-scoring game but keeping Australia off the scoresheet in a one-sided attacking display.

Match resultBrazil
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A minority read: Brazil edging a tight, low-scoring affair where Australia still managed a consolation but the game stayed cagey throughout.

Match resultBrazil
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
73% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 546 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
141%226 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
220%108 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
312%66 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
410%57 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
54%24 voters
AustraliaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
63%16 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
2.1×
72%13 voters
AustraliaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
82%10 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
91%8 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
2.0×
101%6 voters
AustraliaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (546 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.08How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 316 · 3%
2 / 397 · 18%
1 / 3319 · 58%
0 / 3114 · 21%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=546). Average 1.03 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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