All resolved pollsResolved · 5 JUL 2026Upset
Brazil1
Norway2
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Norway won 1–2.

Brazil vs Norway 2.2k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 25 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

78%Crowd on Yes
53%Market price
+25Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams score in…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario28%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters2.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Brazil advances84%
Norway advances16%
OutcomeNorway advances
Voters2.2k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes55%
No45%
OutcomeYes
Voters2.2k
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes78%
No22%
OutcomeYes
Voters2.2k
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Brazil wins 1st Half58%
Tie 1st Half26%
Norway wins 1st Half15%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters2.2k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Brazil advancesUpset
Mkt 68%Crowd 84%+16pp
Result: Norway advances · 1.41
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 55%+6pp
Result: Yes · 0.40
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 78%+25pp
Result: Yes · 0.10
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Brazil wins 1st HalfMarket
Mkt 39%Crowd 58%+19pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 0.91
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.41
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.40
Will both teams score in regulation time0.10
Who leads at half-time0.91
Average0.70
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 28% of voters

A confident, high-scoring Brazil vision: the Seleção in front at the break, both sides on the scoresheet, and the game spilling past three goals on the way to a Brazil win.

Who wins this match?Brazil advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Brazil wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A controlled Brazil picture: leading at half-time, both teams scoring but the game staying tight and contained under three goals total, with Brazil advancing.

Who wins this match?Brazil advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Brazil wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

An open, level first half giving way to a high-scoring second period, with both teams finding the net and Brazil ultimately advancing despite the cagey opening.

Who wins this match?Brazil advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
53% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 2.2k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?
128%611 voters
Brazil advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Brazil wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.3×
217%367 voters
Brazil advancesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Brazil wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.0×
38%185 voters
Brazil advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
0.9×
47%155 voters
Brazil advancesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
0.9×
56%125 voters
Brazil advancesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Brazil wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.2×
65%105 voters
Brazil advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Brazil wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.8×
74%89 voters
Brazil advancesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
1.9×
84%79 voters
Brazil advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Norway wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.7×
93%68 voters
Norway advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Norway wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
3.0×
103%60 voters
Brazil advancesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Norway wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (2.2k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 437 · 2%
3 / 4347 · 16%
2 / 4996 · 45%
1 / 4673 · 31%
0 / 4151 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=2.2k). Average 1.75 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.