All resolved pollsResolved · 11 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
New Orleans SaintsCrowd's pick · 50%13
Minnesota VikingsWon · Crowd had 50%23
The verdict

The crowd backed Over 42.5. Minnesota Vikings won 13–23.

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 51 points above the market's price on Over 42.5, and it went the other way.

100%Crowd on Over 42.5
49%Market price
+51Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called
winsMarket beat the crowd
Minnesota win by 3 or…Crowd beat the market
there be more than 42.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
New Orleans Saints50%
Minnesota Vikings ✓50%
OutcomeMinnesota Vikings
Voters4
ReadMarket
2Will Minnesota win by 3 or more?
Yes ✓75%
No25%
OutcomeYes
Voters4
ReadCrowd
3Will there be more than 42.5 points?
Over 42.5100%
Under 42.5 ✓0%
OutcomeUnder 42.5
Voters4
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Minnesota50%
New Orleans ✓50%
Tie0%
OutcomeNew Orleans
Voters4
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: New Orleans SaintsMarket
Mkt 45%Crowd 50%+5pp
Result: Minnesota Vikings · 0.50
: Deep
Will Minnesota win by 3 or more: YesCrowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 75%+26pp
Result: Yes · 0.13
: Deep
Will there be more than 42.5 points: Over 42.5Market
Mkt 49%Crowd 100%+51pp
Result: Under 42.5 · 2.00
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: MinnesotaMarket
Mkt 43%Crowd 50%+7pp
Result: New Orleans · 0.50
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.50
Will Minnesota win by 3 or more0.13
Will there be more than 42.5 points2.00
Who leads at half-time0.50
Average0.78
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

A clean Vikings statement: Minnesota controls from the front, leads at the break, wins comfortably, and both offences combine for a high-scoring afternoon.

Who wins?Minnesota Vikings
Will Minnesota win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Minnesota
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

New Orleans edges ahead at half-time in a free-flowing game, but Minnesota flips the script in the second half to win by a clear margin in a points-heavy contest.

Who wins?Minnesota Vikings
Will Minnesota win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?New Orleans
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

A Saints-led game throughout, New Orleans in front at the break and across the line at the final whistle, with the total points tally climbing well above the mark despite a close

Who wins?New Orleans Saints
Will Minnesota win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?New Orleans
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Minnesota win by 3 or more?Will there be more than 42.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
125%1 voter
Minnesota VikingsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Over 42.5Got it wrong
MinnesotaGot it wrong
1.3×
225%1 voter
Minnesota VikingsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Over 42.5Got it wrong
New OrleansCalled it!
1.3×
325%1 voter
New Orleans SaintsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Over 42.5Got it wrong
New OrleansCalled it!
4.0×
425%1 voter
New Orleans SaintsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Over 42.5Got it wrong
MinnesotaGot it wrong
1.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.38How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 41 · 25%
2 / 41 · 25%
1 / 42 · 50%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 1.75 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.