The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Colombia1
Ghana0
Crowd and market both called 3 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
69%Crowd
44%Market
+25Divergence

+25 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran 25 points above market on both teams scoring. That read diverged from the final result.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap44%69% Yes+25
2Who leads at half-time?41%55% Colombia wins 1st Half+14
3Who wins this match?71%79% Colombia advances+8
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?58%55% No-3
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedColombia 1–0 Ghana — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
both teams score in…Market beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario21%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.6kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Colombia advances79%
Ghana advances21%
OutcomeColombia advances
Voters1.6k
ReadConsensus
2Who leads at half-time?
Colombia wins 1st Half55%
Tie 1st Half28%
Ghana wins 1st Half17%
OutcomeColombia wins 1st Half
Voters1.6k
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes69%
No31%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.6k
ReadMarket
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No55%
Yes45%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.6k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Colombia advancesConsensus
Mkt 71%Crowd 79%+8pp
Result: Colombia advances · 0.09
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Colombia wins 1st HalfCrowd
Mkt 41%Crowd 55%+14pp
Result: Colombia wins 1st Half · 0.31
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesMarket
Mkt 44%Crowd 69%+25pp
Result: No · 0.95
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoConsensus
Mkt 58%Crowd 55%-3pp
Result: No · 0.40
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.09
Who leads at half-time0.31
Will both teams score in regulation time0.95
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.40
Average0.44
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 21% of voters

Colombia in command from the off, leading at the break in a free-scoring game that clears three goals. The crowd's most vivid and tightly clustered vision of the match.

Who wins this match?Colombia advances
Who leads at half-time?Colombia wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters

Colombia ahead at half-time and through at the final whistle, both sides finding the net but the game staying tight enough to stay under three goals total.

Who wins this match?Colombia advances
Who leads at half-time?Colombia wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters · came true

Colombia dominant and clean, leading at the break and keeping Ghana off the scoresheet entirely in a controlled, low-volume win.

Who wins this match?Colombia advances
Who leads at half-time?Colombia wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?No
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
47% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.6k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score in regulation time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
121%328 voters
Colombia advancesCalled it!
Colombia wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.6×
218%275 voters
Colombia advancesCalled it!
Colombia wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.1×
38%130 voters
Colombia advancesCalled it!
Colombia wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.1×
47%105 voters
Colombia advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.8×
57%104 voters
Colombia advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.8×
65%78 voters
Colombia advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
75%73 voters
Colombia advancesCalled it!
Colombia wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
84%57 voters
Ghana advancesGot it wrong
Ghana wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
2.7×
93%47 voters
Ghana advancesGot it wrong
Ghana wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.7×
103%45 voters
Colombia advancesCalled it!
Ghana wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.6k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.20How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4130 · 8%
3 / 4485 · 31%
2 / 4596 · 38%
1 / 4267 · 17%
0 / 479 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.6k). Average 2.21 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
Get the calls worth watching