All resolved pollsResolved · 18 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Real MadridWon · Crowd had 83%4
SevillaCrowd had 10%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Real Madrid won 4–1.

Real Madrid vs Sevilla 545 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 17 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

70%Crowd on Yes
53%Market price
+17Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario50%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters545World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Real Madrid ✓83%
Sevilla10%
Tie6%
OutcomeReal Madrid
Voters545
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓71%
Under 2.5 goals29%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters545
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓70%
No30%
OutcomeYes
Voters545
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Real MadridConsensus
Mkt 76%Crowd 83%+7pp
Result: Real Madrid · 0.04
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 70%Crowd 71%+1pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.17
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 70%+17pp
Result: Yes · 0.18
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.04
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.17
Will both teams score0.18
Average0.13
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 50% of voters · came true

A high-scoring Real Madrid win with Sevilla finding the net too. The crowd's dominant vision, clustering tighter here than chance alone would produce.

Match resultReal Madrid
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

Real Madrid running out winners in a free-scoring game, but keeping a clean sheet throughout. A minority read, held below what independent answers would predict.

Match resultReal Madrid
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A tight, low-scoring affair with Real Madrid edging it and Sevilla grabbing a consolation. A cautious vision, also held below its statistically expected share.

Match resultReal Madrid
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
73% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 545 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
150%273 voters
Real MadridCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
212%68 voters
Real MadridCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
311%59 voters
Real MadridCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
410%55 voters
Real MadridCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
54%21 voters
SevillaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
63%14 voters
SevillaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
3.0×
72%12 voters
SevillaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
82%12 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.8×
92%10 voters
SevillaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.9×
101%8 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (545 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-2. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3273 · 50%
2 / 3154 · 28%
1 / 396 · 18%
0 / 322 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=545). Average 2.24 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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