All resolved pollsResolved · 8 OCT 2026Upset
SantosCrowd had 41%2
FlamengoCrowd's pick · 46%2
The verdict

Santos 2–2 Flamengo

Santos vs Flamengo 557 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 15 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

71%Crowd on Yes
56%Market price
+15Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario24%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters557World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Flamengo46%
Santos41%
Tie ✓12%
OutcomeTie
Voters557
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓58%
Under 2.5 goals42%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters557
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓71%
No29%
OutcomeYes
Voters557
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: FlamengoUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 46%-6pp
Result: Tie · 1.15
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 58%+4pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.35
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 56%Crowd 71%+15pp
Result: Yes · 0.17
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.15
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.35
Will both teams score0.17
Average0.56
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 24% of voters

A Flamengo win in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and goals flow freely. The crowd's single most-backed vision of the match.

Match resultFlamengo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 21% of voters

Santos pulling off the upset in a lively, high-scoring affair where both teams get on the scoresheet. A closely contested alternative to the favourite scenario.

Match resultSantos
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

Flamengo grinding out a tight, low-scoring win, keeping Santos off the board in a controlled, defensively compact match. A minority but notably cohesive cluster.

Match resultFlamengo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
54% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 557 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
124%131 voters
FlamengoGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
221%116 voters
SantosGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
39%51 voters
FlamengoGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
49%51 voters
FlamengoGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
59%50 voters
SantosGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
68%43 voters
SantosGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
75%26 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
85%26 voters
FlamengoGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
94%24 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
104%22 voters
SantosGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (557 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 324 · 4%
2 / 3279 · 50%
1 / 3160 · 29%
0 / 394 · 17%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=557). Average 1.42 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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