The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
USA2
Bosnia-Herzegovina0
Crowd called 2 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
69%Crowd
46%Market
+23Divergence

+23 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran 23 points above market on both teams scoring. That divergence went against the outcome.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap46%69% Yes+23
2Who leads at half-time?50%60% USA wins 1st Half+10
3Who wins this match?81%76% USA advances-5
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?52%51% Yes-1
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedUnited States 2–0 Bosnia-Herzegovina — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Surprise
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
both teams score in…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.6kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
USA advances76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina advances24%
OutcomeUSA advances
Voters1.6k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes51%
No49%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.6k
ReadUpset
3Who leads at half-time?
USA wins 1st Half60%
Bosnia and Herzegovina wins 1st Half20%
Tie 1st Half20%
OutcomeUSA wins 1st Half
Voters1.6k
ReadConsensus
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes69%
No31%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.6k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: USA advancesConsensus
Mkt 81%Crowd 76%-5pp
Result: USA advances · 0.12
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 51%-1pp
Result: No · 0.52
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: USA wins 1st HalfConsensus
Mkt 50%Crowd 60%+10pp
Result: USA wins 1st Half · 0.24
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesMarket
Mkt 46%Crowd 69%+23pp
Result: No · 0.95
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.12
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.52
Who leads at half-time0.24
Will both teams score in regulation time0.95
Average0.46
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

USA in control from the first whistle, leading at the break, both sides finding the net in an open, high-scoring contest that ends with USA through.

Who wins this match?USA advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?USA wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

USA leads at half-time in a tight, low-scoring affair, both teams grab a goal, but the final tally stays under three as USA edges through.

Who wins this match?USA advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?USA wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters · came true

A compact, disciplined match with USA ahead at the break, goals scarce, Bosnia kept off the board, and USA advancing on a slim, clean margin.

Who wins this match?USA advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?USA wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?No
46% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.6k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
125%405 voters
USA advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
USA wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.6×
214%224 voters
USA advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
USA wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
38%123 voters
USA advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
USA wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.1×
47%106 voters
USA advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
USA wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.9×
54%72 voters
USA advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Bosnia and Herzegovina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
64%63 voters
USA advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
73%55 voters
USA advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.5×
83%53 voters
Bosnia and Herzegovina advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.0×
93%52 voters
USA advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Bosnia and Herzegovina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.4×
103%51 voters
USA advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.6k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4123 · 8%
3 / 4460 · 28%
2 / 4680 · 42%
1 / 4277 · 17%
0 / 484 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.6k). Average 2.16 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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