All resolved pollsResolved · 12 SEPT 2026Upset
Aston VillaCrowd's pick · 63%1
Nottingham ForestWon · Crowd had 23%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Aston Villa. Nottingham Forest won 1–2.

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest 656 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 19 points above the market's price on Aston Villa, and it went the other way.

63%Crowd on Aston Villa
44%Market price
+19Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario27%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters656World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Aston Villa63%
Nottingham Forest ✓23%
Tie15%
OutcomeNottingham Forest
Voters656
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓50%
Under 2.5 goals50%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters656
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓63%
No37%
OutcomeYes
Voters656
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Aston VillaUpset
Mkt 44%Crowd 63%+19pp
Result: Nottingham Forest · 1.01
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 48%Crowd 50%+2pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.50
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 63%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.27
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.01
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.50
Will both teams score0.27
Average0.60
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 27% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: an open, end-to-end home win with both sides on the scoresheet and goals to spare.

Match resultAston Villa
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

A tighter, more controlled Aston Villa victory, kept clean or near-clean with the game settled by a narrow margin.

Match resultAston Villa
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

A compact home win where both sides found the net but the game stayed low-scoring and relatively contained.

Match resultAston Villa
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
56% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 656 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
127%180 voters
Aston VillaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
216%107 voters
Aston VillaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
313%82 voters
Aston VillaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
48%52 voters
Nottingham ForestCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
57%44 voters
Nottingham ForestCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
67%43 voters
Aston VillaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
76%37 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.2×
85%34 voters
Nottingham ForestCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
94%26 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
103%22 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (656 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 352 · 8%
2 / 3258 · 39%
1 / 3217 · 33%
0 / 3129 · 20%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=656). Average 1.36 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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