All resolved pollsResolved · 16 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
BarcelonaWon · Crowd had 87%7
Racing Santander2
The verdict

The crowd backed Over 2.5 goals. Barcelona won 7–2.

Barcelona vs Racing Santander 639 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 11 points below the market's price on Over 2.5 goals, and it went the other way.

74%Crowd on Over 2.5 goals
85%Market price
-11Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario34%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters639World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Barcelona ✓87%
Santander7%
Tie5%
OutcomeBarcelona
Voters639
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓74%
Under 2.5 goals26%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters639
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
No51%
Yes ✓49%
OutcomeYes
Voters639
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: BarcelonaConsensus
Mkt 90%Crowd 87%-3pp
Result: Barcelona · 0.02
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 85%Crowd 74%-11pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.14
: Deep
Will both teams score: NoMarket
Mkt 48%Crowd 51%+3pp
Result: Yes · 0.52
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.02
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.14
Will both teams score0.52
Average0.23
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 34% of voters

Barcelona control a high-scoring affair but keep Racing off the board entirely, goals flowing one way in a dominant, clean-sheet victory.

Match resultBarcelona
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 2 · 34% of voters · came true

An open, free-scoring contest with Barcelona winning comfortably but Racing finding the net at least once in a lively, end-to-end match.

Match resultBarcelona
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Barcelona grind out a tight, low-key win, keeping Racing scoreless in a controlled, defensively solid encounter with few clear chances.

Match resultBarcelona
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
80% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 639 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
134%218 voters
BarcelonaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
234%216 voters
BarcelonaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
312%77 voters
BarcelonaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
48%48 voters
BarcelonaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
53%18 voters
SantanderGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
63%16 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
3.9×
71%9 voters
SantanderGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
81%9 voters
SantanderGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.6×
91%9 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
101%9 voters
SantanderGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (639 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.07How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.0×The most-backed combination drew 1.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3216 · 34%
2 / 3293 · 46%
1 / 3114 · 18%
0 / 316 · 3%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=639). Average 2.11 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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