All resolved pollsResolved · 8 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
FluminenseWon · Crowd had 68%4
CoritibaCrowd had 20%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Fluminense won 4–0.

Fluminense vs Coritiba 551 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 19 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on Yes
48%Market price
+19Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters551World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Fluminense ✓68%
Coritiba20%
Tie12%
OutcomeFluminense
Voters551
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓55%
Under 2.5 goals45%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters551
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes67%
No ✓33%
OutcomeNo
Voters551
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: FluminenseConsensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 68%+3pp
Result: Fluminense · 0.16
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 55%+4pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.40
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 48%Crowd 67%+19pp
Result: No · 0.90
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.16
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.40
Will both teams score0.90
Average0.49
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Fluminense in control of an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net in a high-scoring affair.

Match resultFluminense
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

A tighter, more contained picture: Fluminense winning but keeping it close and clean, with Coritiba shut out in a low-scoring contest.

Match resultFluminense
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

A narrow Fluminense victory where both sides contribute to the scoresheet but the game stays compact and goals remain scarce.

Match resultFluminense
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
62% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 551 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
133%182 voters
FluminenseCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
215%83 voters
FluminenseCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.5×
314%75 voters
FluminenseCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
49%47 voters
CoritibaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
57%37 voters
FluminenseCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.5×
66%31 voters
CoritibaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
74%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
83%19 voters
CoritibaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.2×
93%19 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.9×
102%13 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (551 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 337 · 7%
2 / 3289 · 52%
1 / 3173 · 31%
0 / 352 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=551). Average 1.56 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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