All resolved pollsResolved · 5 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
ItalyWon · Crowd had 76%3
Turkey1
The verdict

The crowd called it — Italy won 3–1.

Italy vs Türkiye 594 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 12 points above the market's price on Italy, and the crowd had it.

76%Crowd on Italy
64%Market price
+12Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario36%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters594World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Italy ✓76%
Turkiye14%
Tie10%
OutcomeItaly
Voters594
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓56%
Under 2.5 goals44%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters594
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓67%
No33%
OutcomeYes
Voters594
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: ItalyConsensus
Mkt 64%Crowd 76%+12pp
Result: Italy · 0.09
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 56%-5pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.39
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 58%Crowd 67%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.22
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.09
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.39
Will both teams score0.22
Average0.23
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 36% of voters · came true

Italy in control, goals flowing, and both sides finding the net. The crowd's dominant vision: an open, high-tempo Italian victory with shared scoring.

Match resultItaly
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

Italy win, but the game stays tight. Both teams score, yet the goals stay few. A compact Italian victory where Türkiye still leaves a mark.

Match resultItaly
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

Italy shut the door. A controlled, low-scoring win with Türkiye kept off the board. Discipline and defensive solidity define the Italian performance.

Match resultItaly
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
66% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 594 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
136%214 voters
ItalyCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
217%100 voters
ItalyCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
313%80 voters
ItalyCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
410%60 voters
ItalyCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
56%34 voters
TurkiyeGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
64%26 voters
TurkiyeGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.2×
74%22 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.6×
83%18 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
93%18 voters
TurkiyeGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
102%12 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (594 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3214 · 36%
2 / 3206 · 35%
1 / 3126 · 21%
0 / 348 · 8%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=594). Average 1.99 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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