All resolved pollsResolved · 11 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Tennessee TitansCrowd had 0%3
Houston TexansWon · Crowd had 100%26
The verdict

The crowd backed Over 39.5. Houston Texans won 3–26.

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 31 points above the market's price on Over 39.5, and it went the other way.

75%Crowd on Over 39.5
44%Market price
+31Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
Houston win by 7 or moreCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 39.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Houston Texans ✓100%
Tennessee Titans0%
OutcomeHouston Texans
Voters4
ReadConsensus
2Will Houston win by 7 or more?
Yes ✓50%
No50%
OutcomeYes
Voters4
ReadConsensus
3Will there be more than 39.5 points?
Over 39.575%
Under 39.5 ✓25%
OutcomeUnder 39.5
Voters4
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Houston ✓50%
Tennessee25%
Tie25%
OutcomeHouston
Voters4
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Houston TexansConsensus
Mkt 77%Crowd 100%+23pp
Result: Houston Texans · 0.00
: Deep
Will Houston win by 7 or more: YesConsensus
Mkt 57%Crowd 50%-7pp
Result: Yes · 0.50
: Deep
Will there be more than 39.5 points: Over 39.5Market
Mkt 44%Crowd 75%+31pp
Result: Under 39.5 · 1.13
: Thin
Who leads at half-time: HoustonConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 50%-10pp
Result: Houston · 0.38
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.00
Will Houston win by 7 or more0.50
Will there be more than 39.5 points1.13
Who leads at half-time0.38
Average0.50
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

A scrappy, high-scoring affair where Tennessee seizes the first half but Houston claws back a narrow win in a game that spills past the total.

Who wins?Houston Texans
Will Houston win by 7 or more?No
Will there be more than 39.5 points?Over 39.5
Who leads at half-time?Tennessee
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

Houston controls from the front and leads at the break, grinding out a tight, low-scoring win that keeps the margin inside a single score.

Who wins?Houston Texans
Will Houston win by 7 or more?No
Will there be more than 39.5 points?Under 39.5
Who leads at half-time?Houston
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

Houston dominates wire to wire, leading at half and pulling away in a high-scoring blowout that covers the spread and clears the total with room to spare.

Who wins?Houston Texans
Will Houston win by 7 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 39.5 points?Over 39.5
Who leads at half-time?Houston
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Houston win by 7 or more?Will there be more than 39.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
125%1 voter
Houston TexansCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Over 39.5Got it wrong
TennesseeGot it wrong
2.7×
225%1 voter
Houston TexansCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Under 39.5Called it!
HoustonCalled it!
4.0×
325%1 voter
Houston TexansCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Over 39.5Got it wrong
HoustonCalled it!
1.3×
425%1 voter
Houston TexansCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Over 39.5Got it wrong
TieGot it wrong
2.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.56How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.7×The most-backed combination drew 2.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-11. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 42 · 50%
2 / 41 · 25%
1 / 41 · 25%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 2.25 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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