All resolved pollsAwaiting result
Argentinos Juniors
Independiente Rivadavia
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Match result
54%Crowd
43%Market
+11Divergence

+11 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits well above market on Argentinos Juniors, well below on the Tie.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Match resultBiggest gap43%54% AA Argentinos Juniors+11
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario54%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters556World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
AA Argentinos Juniors54%
CS Independiente Rivadavia28%
Tie18%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters556
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: AA Argentinos Juniors
Mkt 43%Crowd 54%+11pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 54% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Argentinos Juniors in control at home, with majority conviction that the points stay with the home side.

Match resultAA Argentinos Juniors
Scenario 2 · 28% of voters

A meaningful minority picture: Independiente Rivadavia travelling well and taking the result away from home.

Match resultCS Independiente Rivadavia
Scenario 3 · 18% of voters

The crowd's least-favoured outcome: both sides level at the final whistle, a scenario the crowd finds far less likely than the market does.

Match resultTie
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 556 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch result
154%302 voters
AA Argentinos JuniorsPending
1.0×
228%156 voters
CS Independiente RivadaviaPending
1.0×
318%98 voters
TiePending
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (556 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.00How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.0×The most-backed combination drew 1.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-2. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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