All resolved pollsResolved · 26 SEPT 2026Upset
CD Guadalajara0
QuerétaroWon · Crowd had 23%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Under 2.5 goals. Querétaro won 0–2.

Guadalajara vs Querétaro 591 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 15 points above the market's price on Under 2.5 goals, and it went the other way.

53%Crowd on Under 2.5 goals
38%Market price
+15Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario26%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters591World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Guadalajara58%
Querétaro ✓23%
Tie18%
OutcomeQuerétaro
Voters591
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓53%
Over 2.5 goals47%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters591
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes65%
No ✓35%
OutcomeNo
Voters591
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: GuadalajaraUpset
Mkt 70%Crowd 58%-12pp
Result: Querétaro · 0.96
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 38%Crowd 53%+15pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.44
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 53%Crowd 65%+12pp
Result: No · 0.85
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.96
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.44
Will both teams score0.85
Average0.75
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 26% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: a Guadalajara home win in an open, end-to-end match where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultGuadalajara
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A tight, disciplined Guadalajara victory, with the home side keeping a clean sheet and the match settled by a narrow, low-scoring margin.

Match resultGuadalajara
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

Guadalajara win in a cagey affair, with just enough goals for both teams to register but the match staying firmly under the goals threshold.

Match resultGuadalajara
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
53% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 591 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
126%154 voters
GuadalajaraGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
214%84 voters
GuadalajaraGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
313%78 voters
GuadalajaraGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
49%51 voters
QuerétaroCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
57%40 voters
QuerétaroCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
66%38 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
76%38 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.9×
86%34 voters
QuerétaroCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
95%29 voters
GuadalajaraGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.5×
104%24 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (591 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 334 · 6%
2 / 3174 · 29%
1 / 3205 · 35%
0 / 3178 · 30%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=591). Average 1.11 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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