All resolved pollsResolved · 28 JUN 2026Upset
AlgeriaCrowd had 31%3
AustriaCrowd's pick · 53%3
The verdict

Algeria 3–3 Austria

Algeria vs. Austria 1.1k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 15 points above the market's price on Austria, and it went the other way.

53%Crowd on Austria
38%Market price
+15Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Surprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario13%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.1kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Austria53%
Algeria31%
Draw15%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.1k
ReadUpset
2Will both teams score?
Yes55%
No45%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.1k
ReadConsensus
3Who leads at half-time?
Austria39%
Draw35%
Algeria25%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.1k
ReadMarket
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
No65%
Yes35%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.1k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: AustriaUpset
Mkt 38%Crowd 53%+15pp
Result: Draw · 1.10
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 55%+1pp
Result: Yes · 0.40
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: AustriaMarket
Mkt 29%Crowd 39%+10pp
Result: Draw · 0.64
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: NoUpset
Mkt 56%Crowd 65%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.85
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.10
Will both teams score0.40
Who leads at half-time0.64
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.85
Average0.75
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 13% of voters

A controlled Austria performance: taking the lead before the break, keeping Algeria off the scoresheet, and seeing the game out without it turning into a high-scoring affair.

Who wins this match?Austria
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Austria
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Scenario 2 · 10% of voters

Austria in front at half-time and both sides finding the net in an open, end-to-end contest that produces a lively goal tally before Austria claim the win.

Who wins this match?Austria
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Austria
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

A tight, cagey first half with neither side ahead at the break, before Austria grind out a narrow win in a match that stays low on goals throughout.

Who wins this match?Austria
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Draw
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
30% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.1k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
113%141 voters
AustriaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
AustriaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.1×
210%107 voters
AustriaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
AustriaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.4×
38%87 voters
AustriaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
46%68 voters
AlgeriaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
AlgeriaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
4.1×
56%66 voters
AustriaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
AustriaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
66%62 voters
DrawCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
3.0×
75%57 voters
AlgeriaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
AlgeriaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.2×
84%48 voters
AlgeriaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
94%45 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
2.6×
103%37 voters
AustriaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
AustriaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.1k voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.30How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.1×The most-backed combination drew 2.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-8The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-8; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-17. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 412 · 1%
3 / 4126 · 11%
2 / 4395 · 35%
1 / 4360 · 32%
0 / 4225 · 20%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.1k). Average 1.41 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.