The matchResolvedUpset
Algeria3
Austria3
Crowd called 1 of 4 legs; market called 2.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who wins this match?
53%Crowd
38%Market
+15Divergence

+15 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well above market on Austria to win, where the market kept the Draw firmly in play.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who wins this match?Biggest gap38%53% Austria+15
2Who leads at half-time?29%39% Austria+10
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?56%65% No+9
4Will both teams score?54%55% Yes+1
How it landed:UpsetAlgeria 3–3 Austria — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Surprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario13%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.1kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Austria53%
Algeria31%
Draw15%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.1k
ReadUpset
2Will both teams score?
Yes55%
No45%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.1k
ReadConsensus
3Who leads at half-time?
Austria39%
Draw35%
Algeria25%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.1k
ReadMarket
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
No65%
Yes35%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.1k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: AustriaUpset
Mkt 38%Crowd 53%+15pp
Result: Draw · 1.10
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 55%+1pp
Result: Yes · 0.40
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: AustriaMarket
Mkt 29%Crowd 39%+10pp
Result: Draw · 0.64
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: NoUpset
Mkt 56%Crowd 65%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.85
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.10
Will both teams score0.40
Who leads at half-time0.64
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.85
Average0.75
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 13% of voters

A controlled Austria performance: taking the lead before the break, keeping Algeria off the scoresheet, and seeing the game out without it turning into a high-scoring affair.

Who wins this match?Austria
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Austria
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Scenario 2 · 10% of voters

Austria in front at half-time and both sides finding the net in an open, end-to-end contest that produces a lively goal tally before Austria claim the win.

Who wins this match?Austria
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Austria
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

A tight, cagey first half with neither side ahead at the break, before Austria grind out a narrow win in a match that stays low on goals throughout.

Who wins this match?Austria
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Draw
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
30% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.1k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
113%141 voters
AustriaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
AustriaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.1×
210%107 voters
AustriaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
AustriaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.4×
38%87 voters
AustriaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
46%68 voters
AlgeriaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
AlgeriaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
4.1×
56%66 voters
AustriaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
AustriaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
66%62 voters
DrawCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
3.0×
75%57 voters
AlgeriaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
AlgeriaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.2×
84%48 voters
AlgeriaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
94%45 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
2.6×
103%37 voters
AustriaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
AustriaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.1k voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.30How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.1×The most-backed combination drew 2.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-8The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-8; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-17. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 412 · 1%
3 / 4126 · 11%
2 / 4395 · 35%
1 / 4360 · 32%
0 / 4225 · 20%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.1k). Average 1.41 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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