All resolved pollsResolved · 23 OCT 2026Upset
Deportivo Alavés1
Málaga1
The verdict

Alavés 1–1 Málaga

Alavés vs Málaga 549 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 24 points above the market's price on Malaga, and it went the other way.

44%Crowd on Malaga
20%Market price
+24Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario19%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters549World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Malaga44%
Alaves37%
Tie ✓19%
OutcomeTie
Voters549
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓51%
Over 2.5 goals49%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters549
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓64%
No36%
OutcomeYes
Voters549
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: MalagaUpset
Mkt 20%Crowd 44%+24pp
Result: Tie · 0.99
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 51%-2pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.48
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 64%+15pp
Result: Yes · 0.26
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.99
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.48
Will both teams score0.26
Average0.58
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 19% of voters

A Malaga victory in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and the goals flow freely past 2.5.

Match resultMalaga
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

Alaves take the win in a lively, back-and-forth game where both teams score and the total clears 2.5 goals.

Match resultAlaves
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Malaga grind out a tight, low-scoring victory, keeping Alaves off the scoresheet in a compact, disciplined match.

Match resultMalaga
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
47% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 549 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
119%105 voters
MalagaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
216%90 voters
AlavesGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
312%64 voters
MalagaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
411%60 voters
AlavesGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
510%55 voters
MalagaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
68%42 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
76%34 voters
AlavesGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.5×
85%26 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
94%24 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
103%19 voters
MalagaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (549 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.21How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 342 · 8%
2 / 3139 · 25%
1 / 3330 · 60%
0 / 338 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=549). Average 1.34 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.