All resolved pollsResolved · 9 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
NapoliCrowd had 16%0
ArsenalWon · Crowd had 74%1
The verdict

The crowd called it — Arsenal won 0–1.

Napoli vs Arsenal 507 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 18 points above the market's price on Arsenal, and the crowd had it.

74%Crowd on Arsenal
56%Market price
+18Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario34%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters507World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Arsenal ✓74%
Napoli16%
Tie9%
OutcomeArsenal
Voters507
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals50%
Under 2.5 goals ✓50%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters507
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes70%
No ✓30%
OutcomeNo
Voters507
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: ArsenalConsensus
Mkt 56%Crowd 74%+18pp
Result: Arsenal · 0.10
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 49%Crowd 50%+1pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.50
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 70%+18pp
Result: No · 0.98
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.10
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.50
Will both teams score0.98
Average0.53
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 34% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Arsenal winning an open, end-to-end contest with both sides finding the net in a game that spills past the goals line.

Match resultArsenal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 20% of voters

A tighter picture, Arsenal edging through in a close affair where Napoli still manage a reply but the match stays low-scoring.

Match resultArsenal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters · came true

Arsenal grinding out a clean, controlled win, keeping Napoli off the scoresheet in a compact, low-scoring contest.

Match resultArsenal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
68% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 507 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
134%174 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
220%99 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
315%74 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
46%30 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.5×
56%28 voters
NapoliGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
65%25 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.6×
74%22 voters
NapoliGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.8×
84%22 voters
NapoliGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
92%11 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.6×
102%11 voters
NapoliGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (507 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 374 · 15%
2 / 3162 · 32%
1 / 3236 · 47%
0 / 335 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=507). Average 1.54 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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