All resolved pollsResolved · 21 SEPT 2026Market beat the crowd
Los Angeles RamsWon · Crowd had 49%28
New York GiantsCrowd's pick · 51%6
The verdict

The crowd backed New York Giants. Los Angeles Rams won 28–6.

Los Angeles Rams vs New York Giants 608 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 25 points above the market's price on New York Giants, and it went the other way.

51%Crowd on New York Giants
26%Market price
+25Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
winsMarket beat the crowd
Los Angeles win by 7 or…Market beat the crowd
there be more than 47.5…Surprise
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters608World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
New York Giants51%
Los Angeles Rams ✓49%
OutcomeLos Angeles Rams
Voters608
ReadMarket
2Will Los Angeles win by 7 or more?
New York Giants +6.554%
Los Angeles Rams -6.5 ✓46%
OutcomeLos Angeles Rams -6.5
Voters608
ReadMarket
3Will there be more than 47.5 points?
Over 47.557%
Under 47.5 ✓43%
OutcomeUnder 47.5
Voters608
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
New York Giants44%
Los Angeles Rams ✓40%
Tie16%
OutcomeLos Angeles Rams
Voters608
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: New York GiantsMarket
Mkt 26%Crowd 51%+25pp
Result: Los Angeles Rams · 0.52
: Deep
Will Los Angeles win by 7 or more: New York Giants +6.5Market
Mkt 46%Crowd 54%+8pp
Result: Los Angeles Rams -6.5 · 0.58
: Deep
Will there be more than 47.5 points: Over 47.5Upset
Mkt 51%Crowd 57%+6pp
Result: Under 47.5 · 0.65
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: New York GiantsMarket
Mkt 28%Crowd 44%+16pp
Result: Los Angeles Rams · 0.58
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.52
Will Los Angeles win by 7 or more0.58
Will there be more than 47.5 points0.65
Who leads at half-time0.58
Average0.58
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Giants win outright, keep it close enough to cover, a high-scoring game, and New York in front at the break.

Who wins?New York Giants
Will Los Angeles win by 7 or more?New York Giants +6.5
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?New York Giants
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

The contrasting bloc saw a Rams blowout in a shootout, Los Angeles pulling away early and covering comfortably in an open, high-scoring contest.

Who wins?Los Angeles Rams
Will Los Angeles win by 7 or more?Los Angeles Rams -6.5
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Los Angeles Rams
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

A grittier Giants vision: New York wins a low-scoring defensive battle, stays within the spread, and controls the halftime scoreboard.

Who wins?New York Giants
Will Los Angeles win by 7 or more?New York Giants +6.5
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Under 47.5
Who leads at half-time?New York Giants
40% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 608 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Los Angeles win by 7 or more?Will there be more than 47.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
117%104 voters
New York GiantsGot it wrong
New York Giants +6.5Got it wrong
Over 47.5Got it wrong
New York GiantsGot it wrong
2.5×
213%80 voters
Los Angeles RamsCalled it!
Los Angeles Rams -6.5Called it!
Over 47.5Got it wrong
Los Angeles RamsCalled it!
2.6×
310%59 voters
New York GiantsGot it wrong
New York Giants +6.5Got it wrong
Under 47.5Called it!
New York GiantsGot it wrong
1.9×
49%53 voters
Los Angeles RamsCalled it!
Los Angeles Rams -6.5Called it!
Under 47.5Called it!
Los Angeles RamsCalled it!
2.2×
55%30 voters
Los Angeles RamsCalled it!
New York Giants +6.5Got it wrong
Over 47.5Got it wrong
Los Angeles RamsCalled it!
0.8×
64%24 voters
Los Angeles RamsCalled it!
New York Giants +6.5Got it wrong
Under 47.5Called it!
Los Angeles RamsCalled it!
0.9×
74%22 voters
New York GiantsGot it wrong
Los Angeles Rams -6.5Called it!
Over 47.5Got it wrong
New York GiantsGot it wrong
0.6×
83%17 voters
Los Angeles RamsCalled it!
Los Angeles Rams -6.5Called it!
Under 47.5Called it!
New York GiantsGot it wrong
0.7×
93%17 voters
New York GiantsGot it wrong
New York Giants +6.5Got it wrong
Over 47.5Got it wrong
Los Angeles RamsCalled it!
0.4×
103%17 voters
Los Angeles RamsCalled it!
New York Giants +6.5Got it wrong
Under 47.5Called it!
New York GiantsGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (608 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.29How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.5×The most-backed combination drew 2.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-14. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 453 · 9%
3 / 4152 · 25%
2 / 4133 · 22%
1 / 4150 · 25%
0 / 4120 · 20%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=608). Average 1.78 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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