All resolved pollsResolved · 20 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Denver BroncosWon · Crowd had 51%20
Jacksonville JaguarsCrowd had 49%13
The verdict

The crowd called it — Denver Broncos won 20–13.

Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars 545 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 8 points below the market's price on Denver Broncos, and the crowd had it.

51%Crowd on Denver Broncos
59%Market price
-8Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
winsCrowd & market agreed
Denver win by 3 or moreMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 44.5…Surprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario14%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters545World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Denver Broncos ✓51%
Jacksonville Jaguars49%
OutcomeDenver Broncos
Voters545
ReadConsensus
2Will Denver win by 3 or more?
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.552%
Denver Broncos -2.5 ✓48%
OutcomeDenver Broncos -2.5
Voters545
ReadMarket
3Will there be more than 44.5 points?
Over 44.554%
Under 44.5 ✓46%
OutcomeUnder 44.5
Voters545
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Denver Broncos45%
Jacksonville Jaguars ✓37%
Tie18%
OutcomeJacksonville Jaguars
Voters545
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Denver BroncosConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 51%-8pp
Result: Denver Broncos · 0.48
: Deep
Will Denver win by 3 or more: Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5Market
Mkt 47%Crowd 52%+5pp
Result: Denver Broncos -2.5 · 0.54
: Deep
Will there be more than 44.5 points: Over 44.5Upset
Mkt 51%Crowd 54%+3pp
Result: Under 44.5 · 0.58
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Denver BroncosUpset
Mkt 50%Crowd 45%-5pp
Result: Jacksonville Jaguars · 0.63
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.48
Will Denver win by 3 or more0.54
Will there be more than 44.5 points0.58
Who leads at half-time0.63
Average0.56
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 14% of voters

A Jacksonville-led, high-scoring upset: the Jaguars in front at the half, controlling the game, keeping it close enough to cover and pulling off the outright win in a busy

Who wins?Jacksonville Jaguars
Will Denver win by 3 or more?Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Over 44.5
Who leads at half-time?Jacksonville Jaguars
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

Denver in command from the first half, building a lead of three or more and riding an open, high-scoring game to a comfortable outright win with the spread covered.

Who wins?Denver Broncos
Will Denver win by 3 or more?Denver Broncos -2.5
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Over 44.5
Who leads at half-time?Denver Broncos
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

Denver wins and covers but the game stays tight and low-scoring, with the Broncos leading at the half and grinding out a disciplined, defence-shaped victory.

Who wins?Denver Broncos
Will Denver win by 3 or more?Denver Broncos -2.5
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Under 44.5
Who leads at half-time?Denver Broncos
39% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 545 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Denver win by 3 or more?Will there be more than 44.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
114%79 voters
Jacksonville JaguarsGot it wrong
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5Got it wrong
Over 44.5Got it wrong
Jacksonville JaguarsCalled it!
2.8×
214%75 voters
Denver BroncosCalled it!
Denver Broncos -2.5Called it!
Over 44.5Got it wrong
Denver BroncosGot it wrong
2.3×
310%57 voters
Denver BroncosCalled it!
Denver Broncos -2.5Called it!
Under 44.5Called it!
Denver BroncosGot it wrong
2.1×
48%46 voters
Jacksonville JaguarsGot it wrong
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5Got it wrong
Under 44.5Called it!
Jacksonville JaguarsCalled it!
1.9×
54%22 voters
Jacksonville JaguarsGot it wrong
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5Got it wrong
Under 44.5Called it!
Denver BroncosGot it wrong
0.8×
64%20 voters
Denver BroncosCalled it!
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5Got it wrong
Over 44.5Got it wrong
Denver BroncosGot it wrong
0.6×
73%19 voters
Jacksonville JaguarsGot it wrong
Denver Broncos -2.5Called it!
Under 44.5Called it!
Denver BroncosGot it wrong
0.7×
83%18 voters
Denver BroncosCalled it!
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5Got it wrong
Under 44.5Called it!
Denver BroncosGot it wrong
0.6×
93%17 voters
Jacksonville JaguarsGot it wrong
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5Got it wrong
Over 44.5Got it wrong
Denver BroncosGot it wrong
0.5×
103%15 voters
Jacksonville JaguarsGot it wrong
Denver Broncos -2.5Called it!
Over 44.5Got it wrong
Denver BroncosGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (545 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.28How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.8×The most-backed combination drew 2.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-20. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 413 · 2%
3 / 4108 · 20%
2 / 4223 · 41%
1 / 4172 · 32%
0 / 429 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=545). Average 1.82 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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