All resolved pollsResolved · 26 SEPT 2026Crowd beat the market
CF MontréalWon · Crowd had 48%3
FC CincinnatiCrowd had 33%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Over 2.5 goals. CF Montréal won 3–1.

CF Montréal vs FC Cincinnati 591 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 15 points below the market's price on Over 2.5 goals, and it went the other way.

52%Crowd on Over 2.5 goals
67%Market price
-15Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd beat the market
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario22%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters591World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
CF Montréal ✓48%
FC Cincinnati33%
Tie19%
OutcomeCF Montréal
Voters591
ReadCrowd
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓52%
Under 2.5 goals48%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters591
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓67%
No33%
OutcomeYes
Voters591
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: CF MontréalCrowd
Mkt 38%Crowd 48%+10pp
Result: CF Montréal · 0.42
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 67%Crowd 52%-15pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.46
: Thin
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 70%Crowd 67%-3pp
Result: Yes · 0.22
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.42
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.46
Will both teams score0.22
Average0.36
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 22% of voters · came true

The crowd's modal vision: Montréal in control of an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultCF Montréal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

A lively away win for Cincinnati in a high-scoring, mutually productive game where neither defence holds firm.

Match resultFC Cincinnati
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

Montréal grind out a narrow win in a tight, low-volume game where both sides contribute but chances are scarce.

Match resultCF Montréal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
46% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 591 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
122%130 voters
CF MontréalCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
213%77 voters
FC CincinnatiGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
311%67 voters
CF MontréalCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
410%61 voters
CF MontréalCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
59%55 voters
FC CincinnatiGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
67%41 voters
FC CincinnatiGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
76%38 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
86%33 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
95%29 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
104%24 voters
CF MontréalCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (591 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3130 · 22%
2 / 3206 · 35%
1 / 3181 · 31%
0 / 374 · 13%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=591). Average 1.66 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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