All resolved pollsResolved · 19 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
MonterreyWon · Crowd had 51%1
Cruz AzulCrowd had 31%0
The verdict

The crowd called it — Monterrey won 1–0.

Monterrey vs Cruz Azul 598 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 11 points above the market's price on Monterrey, and the crowd had it.

51%Crowd on Monterrey
40%Market price
+11Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario22%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters598World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Monterrey ✓51%
Cruz Azul31%
Tie18%
OutcomeMonterrey
Voters598
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals51%
Under 2.5 goals ✓49%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters598
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes67%
No ✓33%
OutcomeNo
Voters598
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: MonterreyConsensus
Mkt 40%Crowd 51%+11pp
Result: Monterrey · 0.37
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 60%Crowd 51%-9pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.52
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 63%Crowd 67%+4pp
Result: No · 0.90
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.37
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.52
Will both teams score0.90
Average0.60
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 22% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Monterrey winning an open, end-to-end contest with both sides finding the net and goals flowing freely throughout.

Match resultMonterrey
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

A sizeable cluster saw Cruz Azul turning the game around in a lively, back-and-forth match where both teams contributed to a high goal tally.

Match resultCruz Azul
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

A minority vision of Monterrey grinding out a narrow win in a tight affair, with both teams scoring but chances kept to a minimum.

Match resultMonterrey
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
47% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 598 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
122%131 voters
MonterreyCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
213%77 voters
Cruz AzulGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
313%76 voters
MonterreyCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
412%71 voters
MonterreyCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
58%46 voters
Cruz AzulGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
66%38 voters
Cruz AzulGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
76%35 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
86%33 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
95%30 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.7×
105%27 voters
MonterreyCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (598 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 371 · 12%
2 / 3171 · 29%
1 / 3246 · 41%
0 / 3110 · 18%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=598). Average 1.34 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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