All resolved pollsAwaiting result
Manchester United
Roma
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Match result
58%Crowd
40%Market
+18Divergence

+18 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits well above market on Manchester United, the widest gap across all three questions.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Match resultBiggest gap40%58% Manchester United+18
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?64%59% Over 2.5 goals-5
3Will both teams score?65%69% Yes+4
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario30%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters577World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Manchester United58%
Roma30%
Tie12%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters577
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals59%
Under 2.5 goals41%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters577
3Will both teams score?
Yes69%
No31%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters577
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Manchester United
Mkt 40%Crowd 58%+18pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goals
Mkt 64%Crowd 59%-5pp
: Thin
Will both teams score: Yes
Mkt 65%Crowd 69%+4pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 30% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: United take the win in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultManchester United
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A vocal minority pictures Roma turning the match, with both teams scoring in a high-tempo game that still produces plenty of goals.

Match resultRoma
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A tighter United win where both teams get on the scoresheet but the game stays close and chances are harder to come by.

Match resultManchester United
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
56% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 577 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
130%175 voters
Manchester UnitedPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.3×
214%80 voters
RomaPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.1×
312%67 voters
Manchester UnitedPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.7×
411%62 voters
Manchester UnitedPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.5×
57%38 voters
RomaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.7×
66%34 voters
RomaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.7×
76%32 voters
Manchester UnitedPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.5×
85%26 voters
TiePending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.9×
93%20 voters
RomaPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.6×
103%19 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (577 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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