All resolved pollsResolved · 20 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Manchester CityWon · Crowd had 90%5
AEK AthensCrowd had 6%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Manchester City won 5–1.

Manchester City vs AEK Athens 565 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 19 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

55%Crowd on Yes
36%Market price
+19Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario40%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters565World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Manchester City ✓90%
AEK Athens6%
Tie4%
OutcomeManchester City
Voters565
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓72%
Under 2.5 goals28%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters565
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓55%
No45%
OutcomeYes
Voters565
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Manchester CityConsensus
Mkt 91%Crowd 90%-1pp
Result: Manchester City · 0.02
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 77%Crowd 72%-5pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.16
: Thin
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 36%Crowd 55%+19pp
Result: Yes · 0.40
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.02
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.16
Will both teams score0.40
Average0.19
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 40% of voters · came true

A dominant City win in an open, end-to-end game where AEK Athens still find a way through. Goals at both ends in a high-scoring contest.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 27% of voters

City cruise to a comfortable, clinical victory with the goals flowing one way only. A high-scoring shutout that leaves AEK Athens without reply.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

A controlled, low-key City win. Compact, efficient, and settled early, with AEK Athens kept scoreless in a tight and largely uneventful contest.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
81% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 565 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
140%228 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
227%153 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.9×
313%76 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
49%52 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
52%10 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.9×
62%10 voters
AEK AthensGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.9×
71%8 voters
AEK AthensGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
81%7 voters
AEK AthensGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.5×
91%7 voters
AEK AthensGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
101%6 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (565 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.10How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3228 · 40%
2 / 3218 · 39%
1 / 3105 · 19%
0 / 314 · 2%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=565). Average 2.17 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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