VoxPop top scenarios
39% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.2k voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
USA4
Paraguay1
Crowd called 4 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
73%Crowd
47%Market
+26Divergence
+26 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Yes on will both teams score.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap47%73% Yes+26
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?41%53% Yes+12
3Who leads at half-time?35%42% USA+7
4Who wins?49%49% USA0
Crowd & market agreedUnited States 4–1 Paraguay — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeUSA
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.2k
ReadCrowd
3Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeUSA
Voters1.2k
ReadCrowd
4Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.2k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.44
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.44
Who leads at half-time0.51
Will both teams score0.15
Average0.38
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
120%238 voters
USACalled it!
YesCalled it!
USACalled it!
YesCalled it!
2.5×
212%146 voters
ParaguayGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
ParaguayGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.3×
37%85 voters
ParaguayGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
ParaguayGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.5×
46%74 voters
USACalled it!
NoGot it wrong
USACalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
55%65 voters
ParaguayGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
ParaguayGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
3.1×
65%58 voters
USACalled it!
NoGot it wrong
USACalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.8×
75%56 voters
ParaguayGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
TieGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
84%44 voters
USACalled it!
YesCalled it!
TieGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
94%43 voters
USACalled it!
NoGot it wrong
TieGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
104%43 voters
USACalled it!
YesCalled it!
USACalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.2k voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.34How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.5×The most-backed combination drew 2.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-13. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.2k). Average 2.17 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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