All resolved pollsResolved · 22 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
Chicago BearsWon · Crowd had 33%30
New England PatriotsCrowd's pick · 67%24
The verdict

The crowd backed New England Patriots. Chicago Bears won 30–24.

Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots 6 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 26 points above the market's price on New England Patriots, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on New England Patriots
41%Market price
+26Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
winsMarket beat the crowd
Chicago win by 2 or moreMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 48.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters6World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
New England Patriots67%
Chicago Bears ✓33%
OutcomeChicago Bears
Voters6
ReadMarket
2Will Chicago win by 2 or more?
No67%
Yes ✓33%
OutcomeYes
Voters6
ReadMarket
3Will there be more than 48.5 points?
Under 48.567%
Over 48.5 ✓33%
OutcomeOver 48.5
Voters6
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Chicago ✓50%
New England33%
Tie17%
OutcomeChicago
Voters6
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: New England PatriotsMarket
Mkt 41%Crowd 67%+26pp
Result: Chicago Bears · 0.90
: Deep
Will Chicago win by 2 or more: NoMarket
Mkt 43%Crowd 67%+24pp
Result: Yes · 0.90
: Deep
Will there be more than 48.5 points: Under 48.5Market
Mkt 44%Crowd 67%+23pp
Result: Over 48.5 · 0.90
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: ChicagoConsensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 50%-3pp
Result: Chicago · 0.39
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.90
Will Chicago win by 2 or more0.90
Will there be more than 48.5 points0.90
Who leads at half-time0.39
Average0.77
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

A defensive, grind-it-out Patriots road win: Chicago leads at the break but New England takes over, winning without a blowout margin in a low-scoring affair.

Who wins?New England Patriots
Will Chicago win by 2 or more?No
Will there be more than 48.5 points?Under 48.5
Who leads at half-time?Chicago
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

Chicago controls from the first whistle, leads at half-time, and closes out a decisive home win, all in a tight, low-total game that never opens up.

Who wins?Chicago Bears
Will Chicago win by 2 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 48.5 points?Under 48.5
Who leads at half-time?Chicago
Scenario 3 · 17% of voters

New England sets the early pace and leads at the break, but Chicago flips the script in the second half to win comfortably in a game that stays under the total.

Who wins?Chicago Bears
Will Chicago win by 2 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 48.5 points?Under 48.5
Who leads at half-time?New England
67% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 6 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Chicago win by 2 or more?Will there be more than 48.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%2 voters
New England PatriotsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Under 48.5Got it wrong
ChicagoCalled it!
2.2×
217%1 voter
Chicago BearsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Under 48.5Got it wrong
ChicagoCalled it!
4.6×
317%1 voter
Chicago BearsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Under 48.5Got it wrong
New EnglandGot it wrong
6.9×
417%1 voter
New England PatriotsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Over 48.5Called it!
New EnglandGot it wrong
3.4×
517%1 voter
New England PatriotsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Over 48.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
6.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (6 voters · top 5 of 5 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.72How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.2×The most-backed combination drew 2.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 41 · 17%
2 / 41 · 17%
1 / 44 · 67%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=6). Average 1.5 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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