All resolved pollsAwaiting result
América de Cali
Fortaleza FC
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Match result
59%Crowd
66%Market
-7Divergence

-7 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd underweights América de Cali and overweights Fortaleza CEIF versus the market.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Match resultBiggest gap66%59% América de Cali-7
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario59%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters542World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
América de Cali59%
Fortaleza CEIF22%
Tie19%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters542
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: América de Cali
Mkt 66%Crowd 59%-7pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 59% of voters

The crowd's modal vision: América de Cali take the result, drawing the majority of voters into a single, concentrated outcome at the top of the map.

Match resultAmérica de Cali
Scenario 2 · 22% of voters

A sizable minority holds a contrarian picture, seeing Fortaleza CEIF as the side that comes away with the result, well above what the market implies.

Match resultFortaleza CEIF
Scenario 3 · 19% of voters

The smallest slice of the crowd pictures neither side separated at the end, a draw scenario the market actually prices higher than the crowd does.

Match resultTie
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 542 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch result
159%319 voters
América de CaliPending
1.0×
222%119 voters
Fortaleza CEIFPending
1.0×
319%104 voters
TiePending
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (542 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.00How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.0×The most-backed combination drew 1.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-2. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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