All resolved pollsResolved · 24 OCT 2026Upset
Aston VillaWon · Crowd had 12%2
Manchester CityCrowd's pick · 79%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Manchester City. Aston Villa won 2–1.

Aston Villa vs Manchester City 553 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 22 points above the market's price on Manchester City, and it went the other way.

79%Crowd on Manchester City
57%Market price
+22Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario50%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters553World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Manchester City79%
Aston Villa ✓12%
Tie9%
OutcomeAston Villa
Voters553
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓73%
Under 2.5 goals27%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters553
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓75%
No25%
OutcomeYes
Voters553
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Manchester CityUpset
Mkt 57%Crowd 79%+22pp
Result: Aston Villa · 1.41
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 63%Crowd 73%+10pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.15
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 75%+14pp
Result: Yes · 0.13
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.41
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.15
Will both teams score0.13
Average0.56
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 50% of voters

The dominant crowd vision: City control a free-flowing game, goals fly in at both ends, and City leave with the points in a lively, open contest.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters

A City-heavy crowd minority saw a goal-fest but one-sided, City piling on while keeping Villa off the scoresheet in a dominant, clinical display.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

A tight, cagey affair in this crowd vision, Villa nicking a goal but City grinding out the win in a low-scoring, hard-fought encounter.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
72% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 553 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
150%278 voters
Manchester CityGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
211%61 voters
Manchester CityGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
310%57 voters
Manchester CityGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
48%42 voters
Manchester CityGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
56%31 voters
Aston VillaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
64%23 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
73%17 voters
Aston VillaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
3.8×
82%13 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
92%13 voters
Aston VillaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
101%7 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (553 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.12How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-2. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 331 · 6%
2 / 3320 · 58%
1 / 3155 · 28%
0 / 347 · 8%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=553). Average 1.61 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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