All resolved pollsResolved · 13 SEPT 2026Market beat the crowd
Detroit LionsWon · Crowd had 48%31
New Orleans SaintsCrowd's pick · 52%30
The verdict

The crowd backed New Orleans Saints. Detroit Lions won 31–30.

Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints 558 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 26 points above the market's price on New Orleans Saints, and it went the other way.

52%Crowd on New Orleans Saints
26%Market price
+26Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
winsMarket beat the crowd
Against the spread, who…Crowd beat the market
total points are scoredCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario15%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters558World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
New Orleans Saints52%
Detroit Lions ✓48%
OutcomeDetroit Lions
Voters558
ReadMarket
2Against the spread, who covers?
New Orleans Saints +6.5 ✓56%
Detroit Lions -6.544%
OutcomeNew Orleans Saints +6.5
Voters558
ReadCrowd
3How many total points are scored?
Over 49.5 ✓53%
Under 49.547%
OutcomeOver 49.5
Voters558
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
New Orleans Saints44%
Detroit Lions ✓41%
Tie16%
OutcomeDetroit Lions
Voters558
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: New Orleans SaintsMarket
Mkt 26%Crowd 52%+26pp
Result: Detroit Lions · 0.54
: Deep
Against the spread, who covers: New Orleans Saints +6.5Crowd
Mkt 46%Crowd 56%+10pp
Result: New Orleans Saints +6.5 · 0.39
: Deep
How many total points are scored: Over 49.5Consensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 53%+1pp
Result: Over 49.5 · 0.44
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: New Orleans SaintsMarket
Mkt 29%Crowd 44%+15pp
Result: Detroit Lions · 0.57
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.54
Against the spread, who covers0.39
How many total points are scored0.44
Who leads at half-time0.57
Average0.48
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 15% of voters

A Saints-controlled, high-scoring affair: New Orleans leads at the break, stays ahead throughout, covers the spread, and the points flood in above the total.

Who wins?New Orleans Saints
Against the spread, who covers?New Orleans Saints +6.5
How many total points are scored?Over 49.5
Who leads at half-time?New Orleans Saints
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

A Lions blowout vision: Detroit dominates from the first half, covers a wide spread comfortably, and both offences combine to push the total over.

Who wins?Detroit Lions
Against the spread, who covers?Detroit Lions -6.5
How many total points are scored?Over 49.5
Who leads at half-time?Detroit Lions
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A Saints grind: New Orleans leads at half and holds on for the win, covering the spread in a tighter, lower-scoring contest that stays under the total.

Who wins?New Orleans Saints
Against the spread, who covers?New Orleans Saints +6.5
How many total points are scored?Under 49.5
Who leads at half-time?New Orleans Saints
38% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 558 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Against the spread, who covers?How many total points are scored?Who leads at half-time?
115%83 voters
New Orleans SaintsGot it wrong
New Orleans Saints +6.5Called it!
Over 49.5Called it!
New Orleans SaintsGot it wrong
2.2×
213%71 voters
Detroit LionsCalled it!
Detroit Lions -6.5Got it wrong
Over 49.5Called it!
Detroit LionsCalled it!
2.8×
311%60 voters
New Orleans SaintsGot it wrong
New Orleans Saints +6.5Called it!
Under 49.5Got it wrong
New Orleans SaintsGot it wrong
1.8×
47%41 voters
Detroit LionsCalled it!
Detroit Lions -6.5Got it wrong
Under 49.5Got it wrong
Detroit LionsCalled it!
1.8×
55%26 voters
New Orleans SaintsGot it wrong
New Orleans Saints +6.5Called it!
Under 49.5Got it wrong
Detroit LionsCalled it!
0.8×
64%23 voters
Detroit LionsCalled it!
New Orleans Saints +6.5Called it!
Under 49.5Got it wrong
Detroit LionsCalled it!
0.8×
74%23 voters
Detroit LionsCalled it!
New Orleans Saints +6.5Called it!
Over 49.5Called it!
Detroit LionsCalled it!
0.7×
83%19 voters
Detroit LionsCalled it!
New Orleans Saints +6.5Called it!
Under 49.5Got it wrong
New Orleans SaintsGot it wrong
0.6×
93%18 voters
New Orleans SaintsGot it wrong
Detroit Lions -6.5Got it wrong
Over 49.5Called it!
Detroit LionsCalled it!
0.6×
103%17 voters
New Orleans SaintsGot it wrong
Detroit Lions -6.5Got it wrong
Under 49.5Got it wrong
New Orleans SaintsGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (558 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.26How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.2×The most-backed combination drew 2.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-15. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 423 · 4%
3 / 4134 · 24%
2 / 4238 · 43%
1 / 4134 · 24%
0 / 429 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=558). Average 1.98 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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